Brussels – This time, we cannot blame the European Union for failing. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán did his utmost to boycott the special European Council’s conclusions on Ukraine, but in the end, he only isolated himself, highlighting just how far he is willing to go in his attempt to undermine EU solidarity with Kyiv. “An isolated country does not cause division,” President of the European Council’s António Costa made it clear at the end of the summit.
Thanks to Costa’s confidence in the possibility of finding a way to continue EU support for Ukraine—and given Budapest’s manifest and non-negotiable veto coupled with the US undermining transatlantic unity—the conclusions on security guarantees for the ally under Russian attack for more than three years were swiftly discussed and “firmly supported” by the other 26 EU Head of State and Government.
Despite the EU having 27 members—and technically lacking unity without Hungary—President Costa’s solution can be seen as a political success, averting further escalation of an inevitable deadlock that offered no room for compromise. He successfully brought Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico—who had threatened a veto before the summit—on board, while also limiting Orbán’s influence by cutting short hours of pointless debate. As a result, the EU has preserved its credibility in Ukraine’s eyes, a credibility it has never had with Trump’s US.
Continuing support for Ukraine
“We have the sense that we are not alone. These are not just words, we feel it,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, ahead of joining the special European Council for an exchange of views on the situation on the ground and the security guarantees Kyiv will need for future peace negotiations with Russia.
“We will continue to be with you now, and we will continue in the future, in the eventual peace negotiations, when you decide that it is the right moment to negotiate,” made it clear President Costa, who strongly advocated for an honest debate among the 27 EU members on the latest developments regarding Ukraine—particularly the US-Russian dialogue. As EU sources pointed out, “the context has completely changed compared to just a month ago—it feels like an eternity.”
According to the text, the European Council welcomes “all efforts” towards achieving a “comprehensive, just and lasting peace based on the principles of the UN Charter and international law.” The principles for negotiations remain unchanged: no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine, no negotiations affecting European security without Europe’s involvement, any truce or ceasefire must lead to a “comprehensive” peace agreement, “robust and credible” security guarantees for Kyiv, and respect for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
When it comes to security guarantees, these include Ukraine’s ability to defend itself “effectively.” In this context, the EU and its Member States are committed to training and equipping the Ukrainian Armed Forces and strengthening Ukraine’s defence industry in cooperation with Europe’s. The key principle is “achieving peace through strength,” which requires Kyiv to be “in the strongest possible position.” As EU officials explain, “the image of the steel porcupine is the first pillar” of support for Ukraine, as “it must be ready to defend itself in the event of another Russian attack.”
The path to European rearmament
While Hungary’s non-negotiable veto blocked conclusions on Ukraine, discussions on European defence proceeded more smoothly. Despite their close links to military support for Ukraine, these conclusions were adopted by all 27 leaders, granting the European Commission a mandate to develop the legislative framework for von der Leyen’s five-point proposal for the European rearmament strategy.
The EU will “accelerate” the mobilisation of the “necessary instruments and financing” in order to “bolster the security of the European Union and the protection of our citizens,” state the conclusions of the European Council, which emphasise the need to “substantially increase” spending on Europe’s security and defence.
First of all, the 27 leader welcome the intention of the Commission to recommend to the Council the activation—”in a coordinated manner”—of the national escape clause under the Stability and Growth Pact “as an immediate measure.” Furthermore, they call on von der Leyen’s cabinet to “explore further measures” while ensuring “debt sustainability,” and to propose “additional funding sources for defence at EU level,” including through additional possibilities and incentives under “relevant” EU funding programmes. All these proposals should be presented “swiftly.”
The conclusions also give the green light to von der Leyen’s proposal for “a new EU instrument” to provide Member States with loans backed by the EU budget of “up to €150 billion,” urging the Council of the EU to examine this proposal “as a matter of urgency.” On the eve of the summit, EU officials described the €150 billion loan facility as “extremely relevant”, noting that it is 1.5 times larger than Horizon funding over seven years.
Finally, the European Investment Bank (EIB) is asked to “urgently continue to adapt” its practices for lending to the defence industry, “notably by re-evaluating the list of excluded activities and by increasing the volume of available funding” in this area. The Commission is invited to consider “measures” to mobilise private financing, “including by signalling to private investors the importance of the defence industry for Europe at large.”
EU officials pointed out that “the EU must turn a new page, we are at the beginning of the book on European defence.” Following approval from EU leaders, the Commission is expected to draft legislative proposals or revisions, which must then be adopted by the co-legislators. Ahead of the next ordinary European Council on 20-21 March, von der Leyen’s cabinet is set to present a white paper on defence and an Omnibus simplification package on 19 March, providing a more detailed strategy for rearmament.
