Brussels – With its latest Enlargement Package, the European Commission has taken a step forward in outlining accession roadmaps towards the conclusion of negotiations with the four frontrunners. While the finish line is already in sight for only two of them – Albania and Montenegro – in 2027, the next 12 months will therefore be decisive in determining whether Moldova and Ukraine can also take the final steps in the negotiating process no later than 2028.
“These roadmaps are living documents grounded in the principle of own merit,” Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos made clear, adding that “they are designed to support and guide progress, but they do not prejudge the outcomes, nor do they substitute for the full and credible fulfilment of the accession requirements.” At the same time, every enlargement partner “can join the group of candidates advancing faster,” she highlighted, referring to the potential for a change of pace in Serbia’s accession negotiations following the Student List’s electoral triumph.
The 2026 Enlargement Package has set out its ambitions in black and white, providing some indicative dates for the conclusion of accession negotiations with the four frontrunners: by the end of 2026 for Montenegro, by the end of 2027 for Albania, by early 2028 for Moldova and by the end of 2028 for Ukraine. Yet what is really crucial to consider is the “priority schedule” for the closure of the chapters for each of them, as outlined in the annex to the Commission’s communication.
Not to forget that everything will depend on the members states’ willingness through unanimous decisions in the Council and through their respective constitutional procedures for ratifying the Accession Treaties – including a constitutional referendum in France (unless both chambers of Parliament approve the alternative procedure by a three-fifths majority).
Montenegro’s accession roadmap
Taking into account the 33 regular chapters of the accession process, plus the two additional chapters provided for in the negotiating framework, Montenegro has 14 chapters left to close. The Commission considers that Podgorica has met all the closing benchmarks and intends to submit all the remaining draft EU common positions to the Council “by mid-November”.
The first goal is to conclude the accession negotiations “as early as December 2026,” according to a a two-stage schedule. Five chapters at one or more Integovernmental Conferences (IGCs) in November – Chapters 15 (Energy), 14 (Transport Policy), 12 (Food Safety, Veterinary and Phytosanitary Policy), 16 (Taxation) and 1 (Free Movement of Goods) – while the remaining nine in December – Chapters 9 (Financial Services), 22 (Regional Policy and Coordination of Structural Instruments), 27 (Environment and Climate Change), 31 (Foreign, Security and Defence Policy), 33 (Financial and Budgetary Provisions), 34 (Institutions), 35 (Other Issues), 23 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights) and 24 (Justice, Freedom and Security).
Following the final Intergovernmental Conference, expected to take place in December 2026, work on finalising the draft Accession Treaty is scheduled for spring 2027. This will require an agreement between the EU member states and Podgorica, as well as translation into the 24 official EU languages and Montenegrin. The signing of the Accession Treaty could take place in June 2027, following the European Parliament’s consent and the Council’s adoption of a decision on the admission of Montenegro.
During the interim period between the signing of the Accession Treaty and Montenegro’s joining the Union – while awaiting ratification of the Treaty in Podgorica and in all 27 Member States – the European Parliament may invite the Montenegrin Parliament to appoint observers, while the Commission could examine possibilities for structured political participation in its relevant activities. The Commission would also carry out pre-accession monitoring in line with the safeguards included in the Accession Treaty.
Albania’s accession roadmap
With only four chapters provisionally closed, 31 more remain to be completed in the negotiations with Albania. As Tirana aims to conclude the accession negotiations by the end of 2027, the Commission recommends completing the work on the closing benchmarks “sufficiently early” to allow for the provisional closure of the remaining chapters. This could take place in three stages over the next 12 months.
Six chapters could be closed by the end of 2026: Chapters 7 (Intellectual Property Law), 17 (Economic and Monetary Policy), 6 (Company Law), 13 (Fisheries), 21 (Trans-European Networks) and 31 (Foreign, Security and Defence Policy).
Further ten chapters could be closed during the first half of 2027: 5 (Public Procurement), 3 (Right of Establishment and Freedom to Provide Services), 4 (Free Movement of Capital), 10 (Information Society and Media), 29 (Customs Union), 32 (Financial Control), 14 (Transport Policy), 19 (Social Policy and Employment), 9 (Financial Services) and 28 (Consumer and Health Protection).
The remaining 15 chapters would then be closed during the second half of 2027: Chapters 2 (Freedom of Movement for Workers), 8 (Competition Policy), 11 (Agriculture and Rural Development), 16 (Taxation), 1 (Free Movement of Goods), 12 (Food Safety, Veterinary and Phytosanitary Policy), 18 (Statistics), 22 (Regional Policy and Coordination of Structural Instruments), 15 (Energy), 27 (Environment and Climate Change), 23 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights) and 24 (Justice, Freedom and Security), 33 (Financial and Budgetary Provisions), 34 (Institutions) and 35 (Other Issues).
Subject to Tirana’s progress, the Commission will present a communication “in due course” on a financial package its accession, while recommending that the Council begin preparations for drafting the Accession Treaty with Albania “in the course of 2027.” Moreover, this process should go “hand in hand” with deeper integration into the EU’s policies, programmes, systems, agencies and working structures, by “expanding access to parts of the Single Market where conditions are met”. The gradual integration dialogues, due to be launched in the first quarter of 2027, will identify potential areas for cooperation, including energy, transport and digital connectivity, security and defence.
Moldova’s accession roadmap
As the Commission considers that Moldova has met the necessary conditions to open Cluster 4 – ‘Green Agenda and Sustainable Connectivity’ and Cluster 5 – ‘Resources, Agriculture and Cohesion’, it urges the Council to make “every effort” to open the two remaining clusters of negotiating chapters “by the end of 2026.”
Chișinău is also considered to be “well advanced” in its preparations to meet the interim benchmarks, and the Commission is ready to present the Interim Benchmark Assessment Report (IBAR), which is required for the provisional closure of chapters under the revised enlargement methodology. Once the Council has given the green light to both steps, the Commission proposes a two-stage schedule for the provisional closure of 25 of the 35 chapters in 2027.
Nine chapters could be closed during the first half of 2027: Chapters 25 (Science and Research), 26 (Education and Culture), 4 (Free Movement of Capital), 7 (Intellectual Property Law), 10 (Information Society and Media), 29 (Customs Union), 13 (Fisheries), 30 (External Relations) and 31 (Foreign, Security and Defence Policy).
Further 16 chapters could be closed during the first half of 2027: Chapters 3 (Right of Establishment and Freedom to Provide Services), 17 (Economic and Monetary Policy), 19 (Social Policy and Employment), 1 (Free Movement of Goods), 2 (Freedom of Movement for Workers), 6 (Company Law), 8 (Competition Policy), 9 (Financial Services), 28 (Consumer and Health Protection), 16 (Taxation), 20 (Enterprise and Industrial Policy), 14 (Transport Policy), 21 (Trans-European Networks), 15 (Energy), 27 (Environment and Climate Change) and 12 (Food Safety, Veterinary and Phytosanitary Policy).
Moldova would also be included in the new gradual integration framework, under the same conditions as the other candidate countries and across the same strategic areas. Moreover, Chișinău is “encouraged to take full advantage” of the opportunities for access to the internal market offered under the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) and will receive support from the Commission through “well-targeted” financial assistance, including the €1.9 billion Growth Plan for Moldova.
Ukraine’s accession roadmap
A similar accession roadmap is envisaged for Ukraine, which should see the two remaining clusters of negotiating chapters – Cluster 4 – ‘Green Agenda and Sustainable Connectivity’ and Cluster 5 – ‘Resources, Agriculture and Cohesion’ – opened “by the end of 2026.” This is where the so-called ‘package approach’, which has linked Kyiv’s and Chișinău’s EU paths since 2022, could come to an end, with the decoupling of the two negotiations, if the member states agrees.
The Commission uses different wording to outline the steps required to fulfil the interim benchmarks and start provisionally closing chapters, as well as setting different targets for Ukraine. Welcoming Kyiv’s “intention to urgently and significantly step up the pace of rule of law reforms,” the Commission stresses the need to “allocate sufficient time and resources” to meet the targets in the first half of 2027, including through the recently established task force tasked with providing “enhanced coordinated support.”
For Ukraine too, the Commission proposes a two-stage schedule, but for the provisional closure of seven of the 35 chapters in 2027. During the first half of the year, only one – Chapter 26 (Education and Culture) – while the other six are expected to follow in the second half: Chapters 7 (Intellectual Property Law), 19 (Social Policy and Employment), 20 (Enterprise and Industrial Policy), 25 (Science and Research), 30 (External Relations) and 31 (Foreign, Security and Defence Policy).
Ukraine would also be included in the new gradual integration framework, under the same conditions as the other candidate countries and across the same strategic areas. Moreover, gradual integration in 2027 “should focus in particular” on concluding the Agreement on Conformity Assessment and Acceptance of Industrial Products (ACAA), on the integration in the Single Euro Payment Area (SEPA) and on achieving electricity market coupling with the EU, within the legal framework of the Energy Community Treaty and in line with the Electricity Integration Package.
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