Brussels – The piercing notes of a bagpipe drift through the heart of the European Union on a sweltering early summer day. It is the tenth anniversary of the referendum that set Brexit in motion – the vote that ultimately led to the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU. Ten years of troubled relations, and a former member still unable to find peace. Yet Scotland is still here, dreaming of bringing the whole country back into the EU. Should old acquaintance be forgot, and auld lang syne?
“In Scotland, more than 60% voted to remain in the European Union. This is one of the places resisting the black hole of Brexit,” said Anthony Barnett, English writer and founder of Open Democracy, speaking to The New Union Post on 23 June on the sidelines of the bagpipe performance of Scottish Auld Lang Syne and the EU’s anthem Ode to Joy, organised by the pan-European campaign Europe for Scotland and the Scottish campaign Yes for EU.
As Barnett described it, “Brexit is like a supernova” – a great old star that explodes. “The whole universe was surprised by this great emission of energy, as Brexit was a democratic shout by the English.” But then, he argues, “the star collapses into a black hole and everything, even light, is pulled into this gravitational collapse.” This helps explain the succession of seven prime ministers in ten years, culminating in the resignation of Keir Starmer. “This process of collapsing into a black hole is still continuing.”
According to Barnett, “we English will learn from Scotland – at some point we have to say, ‘This is enough’, and break from this process.” As the past decade has demonstrated, “this is very hard and painful”. However, he adds, the prospect of Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham becoming the next Prime Minister is “an attempt to reverse and escape” Brexit.
Brexit, Scotland and the UK. Ten years on
“Today, the movement for independence is about re-joining, not separation, and doing so with other nations in the archipelago,” Barnett says, speaking of the potential new driving force for the “Rejoin” campaign. A recent poll suggests that 73% of Scottish voters support EU membership, which now stands at over 60% in England and Wales as well.
As the English writer puts it, the UK is “a multinational entity which is trying to prevent a modern constitution,” while the EU is “a multinational entity which is trying to create its constitution.” The “inherent” contradiction between the two models is “clear” when considering that “for Scotland, Wales, England and Ireland, the European Union is our natural home”, Barnett continues. This is how the question of rejoining the EU is connected to national representation within the country.
“One of the reasons for Brexit was that England itself felt unrepresented – it is the only historic nation which has no assembly to represent its interests, but only those that represent the UK,” he argues, referring to devolution as a “dynamic process that, at some point, will end up with an English Parliament.” Whether it will take years or a decade, “when that happens, membership of the EU is natural.”
At the present time, Nigel Farage continues to cast a long shadow over EU–UK relations and the prospect of rejoining, as his right-wing Reform UK party is leading the polls. Barnett recognises that “Reform UK is a very serious threat and it could succeed in getting into power if they keep the same electoral system.” However, he points to the Makerfield by-election as a display of “a progressive majority against Farage in England.”
On 18 June, Burnham was elected Labour MP and could now stand for the position of Prime Minister. Knowing the expected future Prime Minister well, Barnett says that he is “in the middle” between a Labour Party that “hates the independence movement” and his own experience as Mayor, which has shaped his views “in favour of very powerful devolution within England as well.”
In any case, the English writer points out, one major factor that could push the country towards the European Union is the growing awareness that “the only alternative is an alliance with the US.” In his acceptance speech, Burnham associated the United States under Donald Trump “with a culture of antagonism and division,” reflecting what Barnett describes as “a deep sense of psychological separation.” In other words, “they are no longer a model for us and Europe has become much more attractive,” Barnett concludes.
