North Macedonia has “no clear path forward” on EU accession

Brussels – There has been no progress. So where is the news? There is not any – and, in itself, that is news. More than a year after North Macedonia and Albania’s EU paths were effectively decoupled, Skopje remains stalled. What was once seen as the frontrunner now faces a dead end, with no prospect of reversing a course that has left it stranded in the shallow waters of the EU accession process.

“For now, there is no clear path forward,” confirms Iliriana Gjoni, research analyst at Carnegie Europe, speaking to The New Union Post about the factors hindering Skopje’s hopes of joining the Union 20 years after being granted candidate status. While the constitutional amendments on the protection of national minorities “have become a condition for the EU Council” to move forward, the government has no intention of making concessions on this bilateral issue with Bulgaria. “It is a sort of power struggle between the two sides,” she notes.

There may be a faint glimmer of hope, however distant. As staged-accession discussions gain traction in Brussels, and thinking around EU enlargement becomes more nuanced – from creative ideas for the post-accession phase to safeguard clauses in the Accession Treaties – Gjoni suggests that “if Albania and Montenegro were truly to become EU members, that might help to unlock the situation” in the medium term.

An issue of bilateral disputes

What is blocking the opening of Cluster 1 – Fundamentals – the first group of five negotiating chapters (out of 33) to be opened and the last to be closed – is an issue that appears technical but is, in fact, entirely political. After the long-standing historical and identity-based dispute with Bulgaria was drawn into the EU negotiating framework, North Macedonia is now expected to amend its Constitution to recognise the Bulgarian minority.

The stalemate has already cost the Social Democrats dearly, as they lost both control of the government and the presidency in a dual election on 8 May 2024. Over the past year and a half, the right-wing nationalist VMRO-DPMNE has taken power and has adopted an uncompromising position from the outset. While reassuring EU partners that “we will continue to align with the common foreign policy” – a commitment the Commission acknowledged in the 2025 Enlargement Package – Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski made it unequivocally clear in his inauguration speech that “there will be no constitutional changes as long as I am here.”

Skopje’s government is unwilling to adopt the amendments “unless there is a guarantee that this will be the final request,” Gjoni notes, adding that “Bulgaria, by contrast, has indicated that further steps may yet be required.” As a result, a resolution to the stalemate remains distant. The prospects are further complicated by Prime Minister Mickoski’s denunciation of violations of the Macedonian minority’s right to assembly in Bulgaria and his call for full implementation of the European Court of Human Rights’ rulings.

It must be recalled that, over the years, Skopje has taken significant steps to improve the institutional representation of minorities – despite sensitive relations with ethnic-Albanian population – and even changed the country’s name, from the Republic of Macedonia to the Republic of North Macedonia, following the Prespa Agreement of 12 June 2018. “Many feel that the country has already done enough to merit progress” in the EU accession process, Gjoni adds. As a result, according to the latest Balkan Barometer, only half of the population believe that EU membership would be a positive development.

This right-wing government could be said to have contributed to a worsening of relations between the main minority groups over ethnic issues. At the same time, as Carnegie Europe’s research analyst notes, “judging by the results of multiple elections” – including the most recent local vote between 19 October and 2 November – “the behaviour of the government reflects the deep disappointment felt by the people of North Macedonia towards the EU accession process.”

On the EU side, however, “there will be no going back,” as the requirement for constitutional amendments is “set in stone” under the Council decision. Bilateral disputes are not only a concern for North Macedonia and Bulgaria – similar issues arise, for example, between Greece and Albania, or Croatia and Montenegro – and they risk undermining a process intended to focus on democratic and economic reforms. For this reason, Gjoni highlights, EU institutions are considering removing bilateral disputes from the accession process and “placing them under an arbitration mechanism that would allow other candidate countries to continue progressing without obstruction.”

The way ahead

There is little room for illusions. North Macedonia faces a long, uncertain path ahead, though some glimmers of hope remain for its EU accession. The Commission’s 2025 country report highlights that Skopje has maintained “full alignment” with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), one of the most critical benchmarks in Brussels at present.

Amid widespread public scepticism in the candidate country, the momentum for EU enlargement should encourage a reorientation of the accession process to deliver more tangible benefits for citizens. The upcoming EU Enlargement Forum in Brussels provides a good example, with dedicated panels for civil society organisations (CSOs) and business representatives. “I believe this aspect could help to revitalise the process,” Gjoni emphasises, suggesting it could temper the hardest positions. “The more people-to-people exchanges there are, the more they foster bottom-up change.”

In North Macedonia in particular, citizens are still expected to meet new demands despite having repeatedly fulfilled past obligations, “particularly at a time when EU accession was viewed in black-and-white terms” – either full membership or nothing at all. Today, however, the situation is different. “Some form of gradual integration could still be pursued” at intermediate stages, even without adopting the constitutional amendments. “If tangible EU benefits were to reach the everyday lives of Macedonian citizens through a step-by-step process,” she concludes, “I think this could foster a more positive attitude towards EU accession.”

The state of EU-North Macedonia relations

North Macedonia’s application for EU membership was submitted in March 2004. EU candidate status was granted in December 2005. In April 2018, the European Commission issued a recommendation to open accession negotiations with Skopje.

However, due to deteriorating relations with Bulgaria, the negotiations stalled as a result of Sofia’s veto in the Council. A breakthrough occurred in the summer of 2022, thanks to a French initiative that led to the signing of a bilateral protocol by both Bulgaria and North Macedonia. On 19 July 2022, the first intergovernmental conference took place in Brussels.

Skopje’s negotiating framework stipulates that the opening of Cluster 1 – ‘Fundamentals’ is conditional upon constitutional amendments guaranteeing the protection of minorities in North Macedonia, particularly the Bulgarian one. This is why Sofia has continued to veto the first formal step of the accession negotiations. On 25 September 2024, when the Council positively assessed Albania’s alignment with the opening benchmarks for the first cluster of chapters, the so-called ‘package approach’ (which had linked the two dossiers from the very beginning) was broken, leaving North Macedonia behind.