Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland eye independence from the UK and rejoining the EU

Brussels – The northern front of EU enlargement does not stop with Iceland’s ‘no’ to the resumption of accession negotiations. While the European Union and the United Kingdom are still struggling to reach a comprehensive post-Brexit agreement, the former EU member has to face an internal pressure that risks causing its entire institutional structure to collapse.

On 14 September, the leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland signed a joint agreement on working towards independence from the UK, with the aim of rejoining the European Union. “Momentum is behind our movements; we believe that constitutional change is coming,” the memorandum on independence reads.

For the first time, with all three simultaneously driven by nationalist forces – Plaid Cymru in Wales, the Scottish National Party in Scotland and Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland – the three countries that make up the United Kingdom, together with England, are seeking a common way out of a Union established centuries ago. “We share a belief that the nations and communities we represent deserve greater ambition, greater economic opportunity and a stronger voice in determining their own futures.”

Promising that “Westminster’s time is coming to an end,” one of the agreement’s four pillars focuses on reversing the consequences of Brexit, which “damaged our economies and limited opportunities for our people.” In the 2016 referendum, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU – with 62% and 52.78% of the vote respectively – while 52.53% of voters in Wales voted to leave. Ten years later, the nationalist leaders of all three countries believe that “the future of our nations belongs in the European Union.”

This is why, in the short term, the joint effort will focus on rebuilding and strengthening the European ties, “creating greater opportunities for trade, investment, culture and cooperation.” In the long term, the aim is to become part of the European Union, taking into account the different constitutional positions, and “each nation will determine its own future in its own way and in its own time.” The call on the British government is to “prepare for, plan and facilitate constitutional change in each jurisdiction.”

Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England after Brexit

“Brexit is like a supernova. The whole universe was surprised by this great emission of energy, as Brexit was a democratic shout by the English.” With these words, Anthony Barnett, English writer and founder of OpenDemocracy, described what happened in the UK after 2016 in a recent interview with The New Union Post. But then, “the star collapses into a black hole and everything, even light, is pulled into this gravitational collapse.” A process that is still continuing, with seven prime ministers succeeding one another in ten years.

At the present time, Nigel Farage continues to cast a long shadow over EU–UK relations, as his right-wing Reform UK party is leading the polls. However, with former Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham becoming UK Prime Minister on 20 July, signs of “an attempt to reverse and escape” Brexit are increasingly visible.

As the English writer put it, the UK is “a multinational entity which is trying to prevent a modern constitution,” while the EU is “a multinational entity which is trying to create its constitution.” The “inherent” contradiction between the two models is “clear” when considering that “for Scotland, Wales, England and Ireland, the European Union is our natural home.” This is how the question of rejoining the EU is connected to national representation within the country.

“One of the reasons for Brexit was that England itself felt unrepresented – it is the only historic nation which has no assembly to represent its interests, but only those that represent the UK,” Barnett argued, referring to devolution as a “dynamic process that, at some point, will end up with an English Parliament.” Whether it will take years or a decade, “when that happens, membership of the EU is natural.”

Prime Minister Burnham stands halfway between a Labour Party that “hates the independence movement” and his own experience as Mayor, which has shaped his views “in favour of very powerful devolution within England as well.” This approach may play into the hands of the nationalist leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, as “today, the movement for independence is about re-joining, not separation, and doing so with other nations in the archipelago,” Barnett explained.