Belgrade – It is the day of the most crucial vote in Serbia. Yet election day could represent just the beginning of a period of uncertainty, as several factors could lead to an unclear outcome on 25 October, including electoral fraud and irregularities. The “referendum atmosphere” could result in a clear winner or, if the two lists are neck and neck, both could claim victory, creating chaos amid a refusal to recognise the results, protests and calls for recounts at some polling stations.
“We are expecting a very close election, both between the two leading contenders and around the 3% threshold,” says Ivan Đurić, a policy analyst at the Centre for Research, Transparency and Accountability (CRTA), an independent, non-partisan civil society organisation, speaking to The New Union Post. “In the past, we have had elections that were not completely free and fair, but we knew who the winner was, and the level of irregularities was not such that it could affect the outcome,” he explains, stressing that “this time, every vote will count.”
According to the latest polls, the Student List and Aleksandar Vučić’s ‘United Serbia’ list are both polling at over 40%, while only the ‘Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!’ list is currently projected to clear the 3% threshold for entry into the National Assembly, but only by a narrow margin. However, as Đurić warns, “elections do not end on Sunday.” Voting could be repeated at several polling stations, involving tens of thousands of voters – “and this can change the outcome of the elections.”
Much will depend on turnout, which could play into the hands of the Student List, as it is the political force most likely to benefit from a large-scale mobilisation of the electorate. Đurić explains that high turnout in Serbia means “over 65%, which in reality is equivalent to around 85%,” because “the voter register is a mess”, still including people who no longer live in Serbia and even some who have died. “If turnout reaches 65%, this means that almost everyone has gone to vote.”
The “referendum atmosphere” in Serbia
“We call it a ‘referendum atmosphere’ – you vote either for one option or the other, and basically all the others do not de facto exist.” This is how Miloš Pavković, Director of Strategy at the European Policy Centre (CEP) in Belgrade, describes this election. Speaking to The New Union Post, he notes that, although there are 18 electoral lists, “90% of the people” will vote for either list number 1 – ‘Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia’ – or list number 3 – the Student List.
“What is at stake is a different vision of Serbia’s future and of how politics is conducted. We are on the brink of a new era,” he continues. “We will basically have our referendum: do we want to keep everything the same, or do we want something new?” After these elections, “we will either have the same political parties in power” – with the familiar problems of corruption, state capture and clientelism – “or we will have something completely new that we still do not know what it is going to look like,” but which, in any case, will be based on the promise of restoring the principles of democracy and the rule of law.
If all the other lists fall below the 3% threshold, “whoever wins even one more vote” in the contest between Vučić and the Student List will emerge as the winner of the election, “not only in terms of seats in parliament, but also in terms of a moral and political victory.” Conversely, if any of the other lists manage to enter Parliament, the outcome will remain “an open question.”
The ‘referendum atmosphere’, however, also brings a certain degree of risk. According to Pavković, “if there is a clear winner” – meaning a margin of more than 50,000–100,000 votes – “the result will be difficult to dispute.” However, if the gap between the two lists is less than 2–3%, “there will be a possibility of questioning the results.” This is where the issue of potential electoral irregularities comes into play, as these could also affect the conduct of the presidential election to be held by 25 December.
A free and fair election?
“There are several crucial problems with Serbia’s electoral process,” CRTA’s Đurić explains, referring to the monitoring of “a much longer process than just election day”, which has been ongoing since May. Impunity “for all kinds of electoral crimes” has become one of the main issues, alongside vote manipulation and the merging of the state and the ruling party. The lack of media pluralism on television “is also shocking,” which is particularly problematic given that “people get their news from there, especially outside the capital and the big cities.”
This combination of factors paints a picture of what Đurić describes as “a very unequal playing field, without even mentioning the repression,” which takes place through deeply concerning practices, such as “the misuse of prosecutorial authority to arrest people on the grounds that they have violated the constitutional order simply because they have posted something on social media”.
This is why CRTA reported that the campaign “did not create the conditions for free and fair elections,” although Đurić warns that “the most important thing is whether the result of the vote will reflect the will of the citizens.” And this can only be assessed on election day through the observation mission.
CRTA is deploying 2,200 observers across 500 polling stations, selected to form a representative random sample. “We can use a similar sampling method to that used in public opinion polling” to project not only turnout throughout the day but also the election results in the evening, “within a statistical margin of error.” These data will be used to compare the projections with the official results “and see whether there is a discrepancy greater than the statistical margin of error.” Moreover, if CRTA detects irregularities “at 20% of the polling stations where we observe, we can say with mathematical proof that this is happening across the country”.
After the vote
Whatever the result, two things will definitely change in Serbia after the 25 October parliamentary elections. First, “citizens are more active in society and political life than ever before, both in national and local politics,” Đurić explains, pointing to community assemblies, donations to political parties and campaigning “in ways they did not before.”
Second, “whoever wins, there will be a serious opposition in Parliament,” which has not been the case for more than a decade. “It is going to be a different country, with much more scrutiny and oversight, and I hope that this will be for the better.” he says. The lack of opposition and public engagement has led to “democratic decline, a decline in media freedom and transparency, and increased corruption in society.”
Not to be overlooked is the potential impact on relations with the European Union. “A potential change of government could give fresh impetus to Serbia’s EU accession,” CEP’s Pavković predicts. Belgrade was considered a frontrunner alongside Podgorica just ten years ago, but now “Montenegro is on the doorstep of joining the EU, while Albania, Moldova and Ukraine have overtaken Serbia in the meantime.”
Although students have repeatedly been criticised for not being pro-European, CEP’s Director of Strategy recalls that they have “even cycled to Strasbourg and run to Brussels during their protests.” Moreover, they have placed respect for the rule of law – one of the EU’s key values – at the centre of their movement, and “at no point in their programme have they said they will stop EU integration.” This is why Pavković believes that, with the advent of a new political era, “Serbia could quickly catch up with at least Albania and Moldova and start opening and closing chapters once again.”
