Brussels – Less than one month before the crucial referendum in Iceland on reopening EU accession negotiations, interest in the vote is growing not only in sleepy mid-summer Brussels, but also in another country that, like Iceland, had once pursued EU membership before putting the process on hold.
“If Iceland says yes, it will spark a debate about whether Norway should join that process and how,” says MP Trine Lise Sundnes in an interview with The New Union Post. Just a couple of weeks before parliamentary work resumes after the summer break, the Norwegian trade unionist, Socialist Party member of the Storting (the Norwegian Parliament) and chair of the pro-EU European Movement Norway is already gearing up for a political event abroad that could have a significant impact on her country.
More than 30 years after the EU membership was rejected in a referendum, pro-EU Norwegians have learnt that lesson. “I have been advocating a two-stage process” – Sundnes explains – “first ask the people for permission to open negotiations and only then have a new referendum on the results.” This is the same “wise” approach adopted by the Icelandic government, that allows the public’s views to be taken into account while making people “automatically more interested in the outcome of the negotiations, rather than simply being for or against the EU.”
Waiting for the Icelandic referendum
According to the chair of the European Movement, if Icelandic voters give the government a mandate to restart EU accession negotiations, two things are likely to happen in Norway – “and we are preparing for both.”
First, the impact of the referendum and of Iceland’s potential EU accession on the European Economic Area (EEA) Agreement will have to be assessed from a legal perspective. The EU and the members of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) “are no longer as equal as they were when the agreement entered into force” in 1994, and if Iceland leaves EFTA, “we will have to consider whether this changes the agreement.”
Second, developments in Iceland “will also spark a debate” in Norway, unlike when Denmark and Sweden joined the EU. “This time is different because Iceland and Norway share very similar interests in fisheries and maritime affairs,” Sundnes points out, referring to the European Commission’s willingness to negotiate a favourable fisheries deal with Iceland. “The mere thought of having Iceland meet us in negotiations over fisheries will awaken Norwegians.”
It is true that opinion polls in Norway still show support for EU membership to be some way off. However, the trend points to a decline in support for the “No” side, which has fallen below 50%, while the “Yes” camp is slowly gaining ground, standing at 35%. A new poll is expected to be published on 10 August and is likely to show the impact of the call for the Icelandic referendum just weeks before the vote.
Nor is there a majority in the Storting among political parties in favour of seeking EU membership. Labour Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre has made it clear that his government will not pursue this objective during the current parliamentary term, “but he stated this in normal circumstances,” his fellow party member observes. “If there is a large-scale change in the rules of the game, that could be Iceland.” The starting point could be precisely the debate triggered by a “Yes” vote in the Icelandic referendum.
Sundnes warns that, nevertheless, the question of whether Norway will ultimately embrace EU membership “will not be decided in Oslo, but in the rural areas, the small cities, the workplaces, and the fisheries along the coast.” This is why the European Movement has established local branches across the country. Unlike in the run-up to the 1994 referendum, “there is now an opportunity to drive the discussions locally, not just nationally,” she confirms.
Tightening ties
“Norway and the EU are now more strategic partners than they have ever been in areas outside the scope of the EEA Agreement,” Sundnes explains. This has prompted discussions about “why we should not take the next step” and become part of the EU’s decision-making process, “which basically is the one thing that is lacking.”
As Kjetil Alstadheim, political editor at Aftenposten, told The New Union Post, Norway, like Iceland, adopts a “massive” number of regulations decided by the EU, and the debate centres on “whether it is more democratic to stay outside the EU and just accept the regulations, or to join and have a voice in the room.”
Moreover, the EEA Agreement is becoming “more complicated”, with large policy packages falling only partly within its scope and Brussels increasingly unwilling to accept cherry-picking in the wake of Brexit. Agriculture – a sector that is “heavily subsidised” – and fisheries, “a highly thorny issue”, remain the main points of friction, as evidenced by the “significant tensions” during negotiations on fishing quotas following Brexit.
In any case, “the ties between the EU and Norway have tightened a lot,” Sundnes says, describing the current relationship between the two European partners. In the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Oslo stepped up as a supplier of oil and gas to Europe, while also deepening cooperation on defence and security. “Even though the most reliable characteristic of Trump is being unreliable,” as a staunch supporter of NATO, Norway is in favour of strengthening the European pillar of the Alliance together with the EU members.
The implications of US President Trump’s policies, trade wars and tariffs – that have recently hit Norway as well – are playing an increasingly important role. The EEA Agreement does not cover tariffs, potentially leaving Oslo squeezed between the EU and the US. “Being part of the EU, it would be more difficult for Trump to target one country and also a bigger question to target the EU as a whole,” the Norwegian MP stresses.
The state of EU–Norway relations
Norway applied for EU membership in 1962 and again in 1967, but the process stalled following France’s veto of the UK’s accession (to which Norway’s application was tied). After negotiations were completed, the Accession Treaty was rejected in two popular referendums: first in 1972 and again in 1994 (following a second application in 1992). Since then, Oslo’s application has remained frozen but has not been withdrawn.
Despite this, Norway remains closely linked to the EU through its membership in the European Economic Area (EEA) Agreement, which unites all 27 EU Member States with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries – Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway – in the Single Market.
Oslo is also a member of the Schengen Agreement, giving its citizens the right to travel without a passport within the area, and is a signatory to the Dublin Regulation on asylum policy.
Additionally, Norway participates in a wide range of EU policies, agencies, and programmes, covering areas such as enterprise, environment, education and research, competition policy, state aid, social policy, consumer protection, tourism, and culture.
Trade relations between Oslo and Brussels are primarily governed by the EEA Agreement, which extends the Single Market to EFTA countries. As the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy and Common Fisheries Policy are not included under the EEA Agreement, Article 19 provides the legal basis for establishing rules to progressively liberalise agricultural trade on a mutually beneficial basis.
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