Tbilisi – The path toward European integration has now become extremely challenging for Georgia. The highly controversial victory of the ruling Georgian Dream party in the October 26 parliamentary elections, marked by an unprecedented wave of electoral fraud and violence outside polling stations, is certainly the most alarming news for the democratic future of the Caucasian nation. Political polarisation now risks spiralling out of control, with opposition groups united in condemning the “stolen” elections, while the party of oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili sees itself as having gained legitimacy to continue its repressive policies initiated in May with the approval of the foreign agents’ law.
In this post-election phase, it is once again President Salomé Zourabichvili who assumes the role of a leader steering a country at risk of being drawn towards Kremlin influence, something that has long been appealing to Georgian Dream. “As the last independent institution in this country, I must clearly declare that I do not recognise these elections; recognising them would mean legitimising Russia’s takeover of Georgia,” the head of state declared bluntly to the press on the evening of 27 October, flanked by prominent figures from pro-European coalitions.
From the presidential palace, Zourabichvili has called for a public protest on October 28 in front of Parliament, urging Georgian citizens to ensure that “free, fair, and democratic elections can still be held in this country.” The demonstration, anticipated to be massive, will reinforce that “we cannot give up our European future for the benefit of future generations.”
A troubled vote for Georgia
The October 26 election day in Georgia saw numerous reports of vote-rigging within polling stations and violence just outside. Various electoral monitoring organisations, including ISFED, ENEMO, and the Georgian NGO coalition GeVote24, reported multiple instances of interference with free elections by the ruling Georgian Dream party. Irregularities included multiple voting under a single ID card (a concern raised beforehand, warning of potential document seizures by authorities on the eve of elections), breaches of voting secrecy, corruption, and threats of personal or professional repercussions, along with pre-filled ballots forced into ballot boxes.
These infractions were documented in numerous videos captured by electoral monitoring members, who often suffered beatings and violence from Georgian Dream affiliates. The hours following the poll closures (at 8 p.m. local time) were a rollercoaster of emotions for pro-European citizens and the four opposition coalitions. Initial exit polls had indicated that, although Georgian Dream led with 40.9% of votes, it was heading for a significant defeat, as the pro-EU coalition alliance was projected to capture a majority of 52%. However, with the announcement of the first projections by the Central Electoral Commission an hour and a half later, everything changed. Georgian Dream rose to 52%, while the opposition collapsed to around 38%. Yet, the Central Electoral Commission’s website then froze, raising major concerns about transparency within the Commission.
The vote count continued until the following afternoon, with Georgian Dream confirmed as holding the majority (53.92%), while opposition coalitions remained far behind at 37.77%, though all managed to secure seats in the next Parliament: Coalition for Change with 11.03%, United National Movement with 10.16%, Strong Georgia with 8.81%, and For Georgia with 7.77%.
Election observers firmly denounced the impact of widespread rigging on the final result. Transparency International noted that “the results do not reflect the will of Georgia’s citizens,” due to “the pattern of fraud on election day,” which may also have included tampering with the electronic voting system to increase Georgian Dream’s votes. While in urban centres like the capital Tbilisi the ruling party fell below 40%, vote-rigging was particularly concentrated in peripheral areas and those with ethnic minorities, who are more vulnerable to propaganda or intimidation from ruling party representatives. In the southwest, populated largely by the Armenian minority, Georgian Dream reached implausibly high percentages for a multiparty election, such as in Ninotsminda (88.1%) and Akhalkalaki (87.7%). Similar results were reported in the predominantly Azerbaijani areas in the south, like Marneuli (79.5%).
International mission’s findings
In response to civil society organisations’ complaints and the evidence of election fraud across the country, the four opposition coalitions hoped for a strong denunciation from the international community, especially through the OSCE/ODIHR election monitoring mission (which included a seven-member European Parliament delegation). “The election was generally orderly, but election day was marked by tension, overcrowding at many polling stations, and several instances of physical altercations and intimidation,” states the preliminary report, confirming significant issues but falling short of supporting the opposition’s call for external support to invalidate the elections. In 6% of the 1,924 observations – “a significantly high number,” the report highlights – the electoral process was negatively evaluated, “mainly due to indications of pressure and intimidation of voters, occasionally accompanied by tension or disruptions.”
In about 25% of observations, voter secrecy “was potentially compromised due to how ballots were cast,” and “in most polling stations, party representatives, mostly from Georgian Dream, recorded the voting process.” This practice had an “intimidating effect,” with “unknown individuals observed following voters outside” polling stations. Yet, these findings did not lead international observers to question whether free and fair elections had taken place (press conference questions were repeatedly avoided).
What lies ahead
The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining Georgia’s future path as it stands divided between the increasingly authoritarian tendencies of Georgian Dream and the opposition supported by President Zourabichvili. The reaction of Western partners – so far relatively cautious – will be closely observed, particularly regarding statements from the head of state, who is usually highly respected: “Protecting Georgia and maintaining the geopolitical balance in this region means protecting the people, not cooperating with an illegitimate government.” Just as European and U.S. partners stood “by the Georgian people when the regime attempted to pass a Russia-style law,” they must now do the same, as “these elections were not legitimate and nothing can make them so,” Zourabichvili reiterated.
The European Parliament delegation has firmly condemned the “climate of hatred and intimidation” that “could seriously undermine the democratic process” in Georgia. However, it has not taken a clear stance on what might happen next or whether Georgian Dream’s fraud will be officially confirmed by national authorities, or if “the next government” (which, after 12 years, will still be in the hands of oligarch Ivanishvili) will continue with the policies that led to the de facto suspension of EU accession in June. Now, however, Brussels must consider if – and, if so, how – to respond.
With the accession process stalled at the candidate status phase, EU member states might consider revoking Georgia’s visa liberalisation scheme to isolate and weaken the party steering the pro-European nation away from its EU future. This move, which doesn’t require unanimity, would negate Viktor Orbán’s endorsement of Georgian Dream. Indeed, Hungary’s Prime Minister was the only European leader to congratulate Georgian Dream’s Irakli Kobakhidze on his “overwhelming victory” – even before preliminary results were released – and scheduled an official visit to Tbilisi on October 28–29 to lend his government’s support.
“Georgian Dream will not relinquish power,” commented Mamuka Andguladze, head of the Media Advocacy Coalition, a Georgian association that promotes and defends press freedom. “They have the money, power, and influence to manipulate the election outcome. Now they will deny any fraud occurred and escalate their attacks on the West, accusing it of meddling with the vote,” Andguladze explains, adding that “from the outset, Georgian Dream’s true goal was to emerge from the election claiming to have increased popular support, to consolidate its power as we have seen in recent months.”
