Brussels – It has not even reached the table of the 27 EU leaders, yet the Commission’s idea has already been rejected. The current member states will “kill off” any revision of the EU accession policy, whether it concerns reversed enlargement, phased or gradual integration.
Talking to The New Union Post, two EU diplomats – who were granted anonymity to speak freely – made it clear that a fast-track accession “is not realistic for any candidate.” The vast majority of the member states consider the current EU accession process to remain efficient, and there is “no intention” to change the methodology. According to both sources, a broader revision would bring “chaos” to the overall process – something no one is hoping for in the Council.
At the same time, Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos is trying to push forward a discussion on this thorny issue, whose limits and implications for accession negotiations have become clear over the years – from Bulgaria’s veto against North Macedonia over bilateral issues to Hungary’s blockade of Ukraine’s path. “The methodology we are using today is not made for the world we are living in anymore,” she said publicly, noting that “we should deliver” through a methodology “suited to the present time and the geopolitical challenges we are facing.”
According to officials, the Commission’s strategy is to test the waters, “but the water is cold, if not frozen.” Discussions on the EU accession strategy have taken place only at a technical level, not among the 27 ministers.
The general mood is that “no major push” for reforms is expected from any member state while waiting for the result of the elections in Hungary. If Viktor Orbán loses and a change of government were to happen next June, “a big push on the enlargement file” could realistically follow. Alongside the two current so-called frontrunners – Montenegro and Albania – two more candidates may enter the phase of formal negotiations – Ukraine and Moldova, which have informally opened all negotiating chapters – not to mention the potential revival of Iceland’s accession path.
Changing the methodology
For several months, the European Commission has been considering a revision of the EU accession methodology – an internal debate that has likely contributed to the unexplained delay in presenting the long-awaited pre-enlargement reforms. Two main approaches have been discussed.
The first is the well-known ‘gradual integration’ process. Under this scenario, candidate countries would gain access to selected EU programmes and policy areas without formally join the Union, while continuing along the conventional path towards full membership.
The second is the more controversial concept of ‘phased integration’, also referred to as ‘reversed membership’. This approach would entail granting candidate countries full EU membership from the outset, with the implementation of required reforms deferred until after accession.
As reported by Politico, the EU’s 27 ambassadors have firmly rejected a proposal advanced by Commission President von der Leyen’s Head of Cabinet, Björn Seibert. The ‘membership-first, integration-later’ model is the only approach that could plausibly enable Ukraine to join the EU by 2027. Nevertheless, the reverse enlargement mechanism is not regarded as a viable option by the vast majority of current member states.
This report was confirmed by the words of Commissioner Kos, who made it public that member states – while agreeing that “it cannot be a status quo” – gave clear directions to the Commission that reversed membership/phased integration “is not possible.” For this reason, the EU executive will continue to explore a combination of options that could lead to “enhanced gradual integration,” she added, expressing hope that “we will soon be able to present the results” of this ongoing discussion with EU members.
How the EU accession process works
The current EU accession process follows a series of formal stages involving a candidate country, the EU institutions, and the member states.
It begins with a third country wishing to join the EU submitting a formal application for membership to the Council of the European Union. Article 49 of the Treaty on the European Union (TEU) states that “any European State which respects the values referred to in Article 2 and is committed to promoting them may apply to become a member of the Union.” Membership requires an evaluation of the Copenhagen criteria, established in 1993.
Once the European Commission recommends granting candidate status, unanimous approval by the member states is required for the potential candidate to become an official candidate. Following this, the Commission may recommend opening negotiations, which also require unanimous approval by the member states.
The negotiating strategy is prepared by the Commission, while the Council unanimously agrees on the negotiating framework or mandate for negotiations with the candidate, who then becomes a negotiating candidate. A detailed screening of the EU acquis is carried out before the negotiations take place in intergovernmental conferences (IGCs).
According to the new methodology introduced in 2021, each candidate is evaluated on the basis of 33 standard negotiating chapters, divided into six clusters. Once specific conditions – the opening benchmarks – are met for a cluster, all chapters within that cluster are opened. Interim benchmarks need to be met for each chapter before closing benchmarks are set, leading to the provisional closure of the specific chapter. Although not envisaged by the Treaties, every intermediate step of the accession process must comply with the unanimity rule – around 150 unanimous decisions for each candidate.
The entire negotiation process is concluded once all chapters have been closed. The Commission provides its opinion on whether the candidate is ready to become a member state, and the Accession Treaty is prepared by an ad hoc working group.
The Accession Treaty must be approved by the European Commission, the European Council, and the European Parliament. It is then signed by the candidate country and by representatives of all EU member states. Finally, it is ratified by the candidate country and by each EU member state in accordance with their respective constitutional procedures.
