Brussels – The government in Reykjavík is keeping its promises and, 14 months after the formal formation of the centre-left coalition, has confirmed its plan to hold a referendum on reopening Iceland’s EU accession talks “in the next few months,” as announced by Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir on 25 February.
During a joint press conference with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw, Frostadóttir specified that the date “has not been decided” yet. However, the referendum on “possibly joining the EU” will come earlier than initially planned, as the coalition had indicated it would be held “no later than 2027” when it was presented on 21 December 2024.
Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009, but froze the negotiations after the elections in 2013, sending a letter to Brussels requesting that it no longer be considered an applicant country. Yet Reykjavík has never formally withdrawn its application – as Switzerland did in 2016, for example.
The formal proposal is expected to be drafted in early spring before being approved by the Alþingi, the national parliament. Afterwards, a nine-month window for organising the vote is envisaged. According to Frostadóttir, this is about “opening an opportunity” for Icelandic citizens and pursuing closer integration with the EU, while ensuring that the country’s distinct identity is “taken into account,” as well as its own “way of life or the way we use our resources.”
As Eiríkur Bergmann, Professor of Politics at Bifröst University, told The New Union Post, although Iceland can be considered a “de facto member of the EU,” it does not sit at the EU table “where the decisions that we accept under the agreements are made.” Two factors are driving the debate on EU membership: monetary policy and security. First, as the Icelandic króna fluctuates “significantly,” joining the Eurozone may address the challenges faced by a small economy, including high living costs. Second, “Trump’s ambiguity regarding the defence commitment,” together with repeated threats to annex neighbouring Greenland, are leading the country to rely more on Europe.
Opinion polls suggest a narrow preference for joining the EU, with 44-45% of respondents in favour and 35-36% opposed. A recent poll conducted by the market research company Gallup in early 2026 shows the two sides level at 42%, with 16% of the electorate still undecided.
As Bergmann explains, two key issues are likely to influence the vote. The first concerns sovereignty and independence, as “Icelanders believe that national identity does not fit very well within a supranational institution like the EU.” Above all, however, “the real problem is always the fisheries policy.” A country that “basically survives on fisheries” cannot accept the Common Fisheries Policy as it currently stands and, he argues, “if the EU wants Iceland as a member, they need to offer a solution from the outset.” Otherwise – as happened in 2013 – leaving the issue until the end of negotiations “poisons all the internal debate here in Reykjavík, to the point that the talks cannot continue.”
The state of EU-Iceland relations
Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 and began accession negotiations the following year. However, following the 2013 general elections, Reykjavík froze the negotiations and, two years later, sent a letter requesting that the EU no longer consider Iceland an applicant country.
Despite this, it remains closely linked to the EU through its membership in the European Economic Area (EEA) Agreement, which unites all 27 EU Member States with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries—Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway – in the Single Market.
Iceland is also a member of the Schengen Agreement, giving its citizens the right to travel without a passport within the area, and is a signatory to the Dublin Regulation on asylum policy. As a member of the Arctic Council, Reykjavík supports the EU’s bid for formal observer status. Additionally, Iceland participates in a wide range of EU policies, agencies, and programmes, covering areas such as enterprise, environment, education and research, competition policy, state aid, social policy, consumer protection, tourism, and culture.
Trade relations between Iceland and the EU are primarily governed by the 1972 free trade agreement and the EEA Agreement, which extends the Single Market to EFTA countries. As the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy and Common Fisheries Policy are not included under the EEA Agreement, Article 19 provides the legal basis for establishing rules to progressively liberalise agricultural trade on a mutually beneficial basis.
