Brussels – The race for EU membership is becoming increasingly competitive, and the current frontrunners may soon be joined by an unexpected contender – not entirely new, to be honest. If the 29 August referendum reopens EU accession negotiations, Iceland could quickly overtake Montenegro as the favourite to become the next member state. How is this possibility viewed in Podgorica, given its slogan ’28th by 2028′?
“We can share the 28th place. For the time being, we have closed more chapters than Iceland, and we plan to close a few more before their referendum on accession, so that the race becomes equally interesting for both of us,” says Ambassador Petar Marković, Head of Mission of Montenegro to the EU, speaking with The New Union Post in the aftermath of the 26th Accession Conference, which confirmed the provisional closure of another negotiating chapter.
From his office just a dozen metres from the EU institutions, Ambassador Marković takes stock of Porgorica’s recent progress, the challenges ahead, and the next steps required to achieve the goal of closing all chapters by the end of the year. At the same time, he stresses that “any good news for other candidates” – whether negotiating, potential, or frozen – “is good news” for the EU’s overall enlargement policy. “Just as we were never jealous of the progress of Ukraine or Moldova, we are not envious of the sudden prospect of Iceland joining the race.”
Currently, Montenegro has provisionally closed 14 chapters out of 33. Iceland would resume from the 12 chapters it had closed before 2013 if accession negotiations were reopened. This would turn the clock back by more than a decade, to a time when DG NEAR – the previous Commission’s department responsible for enlargement – had a dedicated unit covering both candidates. “I think this is a fantastic political symmetry,” Ambassador Marković notes, suggesting that Montenegro and Iceland may join the EU “together, or within a very short span of time.”
How to close 19 chapters in nine months
Ambassador Marković seems quite confident that the timeframe can be respected. “We accelerated some chapters more than envisaged, while for others we are a month or two behind. But we are sticking to the timeline” set out with the Commission. Despite some scepticism in some European capitals about the publicly stated goal of becoming an EU member by 2028, “every time we come to Brussels, we show them better-quality work and deadlines achieved more quickly,” he stresses.
Fulfilling all closing benchmarks by the end of 2026 may not be enough to close all the chapters, as this depends on a unanimous decision in the Council. Pointing to the 11 chapters closed (out of 14) during the current government’s mandate over the past two years, there is “increasing optimism” in Podgorica, also considering that all opening benchmarks for each chapter had already been fulfilled by the time the new methodology of the accession process entered into force in 2021.
At the same time, 19 chapters are still under revision, which is more than double the number already closed. How can Montenegro complete this massive task in nine months? “We do not close a chapter and then start working from scratch,” Ambassador Marković explains. As he reveals, “many chapters are currently 80–90% complete,” and the parallel work on the entire negotiating process could lead to an unprecedented acceleration of the final steps.
More specifically, the Montenegrin ambassador expects “two more” Intergovernmental Conferences (IGCs) under the Cypriot Presidency – in May and June. “The next IGC will most definitely not be a meeting where we close just one chapter, and we will push to close even more in the following one,” he anticipates. By the end of June, “a multitude of chapters” should be ready to be closed – “and what remains will be the work under the Irish Presidency.”
Asked which chapters are the most challenging, the Montenegrin ambassador says that Chapter 27 (Environment and Climate Change) is “technically difficult and the most expensive in terms of implementation,” as it covers one of the largest portions of the EU acquis. Despite being the first country in the world to declare itself ecological in its Constitution, Montenegro still has “a long way to go” to reach high EU standards in practice and faces “a chronic problem” with administrative capacity. “We are asking the Commission for transition periods, in order not to be stuck in the waiting room,” he stresses.
The work must also continue on the crucial Chapters 23 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights) and 24 (Justice, Freedom and Security), which cover fundamental aspects of the rule of law. “We are doing what has arguably never been done before in the history of law enforcement in the Western Balkans,” Ambassador Marković underlines, referring to reforms in the prosecutorial system and the high-profile cases of corruption and organised crime brought to justice. Through the EU accession process, Podgorica is “genuinely” strengthening its institutions to the point that “we will overdeliver and surprise our EU allies,” he promises.
Rule-of-law safeguards, but nothing more
While Montenegro’s ambition to join by the end of 2026 is crystal clear, the same cannot be said for all 27 current member states. Different national interests and political, economic and social sensitivities can derail any candidate at any stage of the process. Yet Ambassador Marković is convinced that “any of them oppose Montenegro’s EU membership a priori.” The reason, in his view, lies in the fact that Podgorica is not interested in anything other than the “old-fashioned merit-based accession game.”
Suggestions of a fast-track accession process may represent added value for candidates that are just starting negotiations, or where the geopolitical situation is so unstable that an economic, political and security umbrella is more urgent than finishing the reform work before reaching the EU’s door. “Since we are practically there in terms of accession talks, this idea is not as attractive for Montenegro,” the ambassador points out.
A stronger stance emerges when discussing proposals by some member states to allow newcomers to join without full voting rights for a certain period. The Montenegrin ambassador asks his EU colleagues not to consider his country a “testing ground” for future enlargements, “where all the social anxieties, fears and dilemmas they have regarding other candidates are projected onto us.” The merit-based process requires that the candidate be judged “on our own merits, political behaviour internationally and domestically,” including its attitude towards exercising the veto power within the NATO framework. “We will not behave like a spoiler,” he reassures.
The idea of introducing safeguards in the Accession Treaty to ensure that the future member does not backslide on the rule of law and democracy is more than welcome in Podgorica. This precaution should prevent autocratic turns or third-party interference and therefore overcome fears of veto misuse. “So, why introduce a suspension of the veto?” Marković continues.
The “next important step” is the formation of the Ad Hoc Working Party on Drafting the Accession Treaty. The Commission has already provided its vision of how the Accession Treaty should look. Based on the discussions the 27 EU ambassadors had in the Committee of Permanent Representatives (COREPER), the Antici Group – a high-level committee of EU diplomats that prepares the weekly meetings of ambassadors – was invited to prepare the mandate for the working party.
The most recent precedent is that of Croatia, when the process was launched once Zagreb had closed 15 chapters. While some EU capitals have requested the same for Montenegro, the ambassador notes that, in the meantime, the new methodology with the ‘fundamentals-first’ approach and stricter political steering of the process was introduced. The working party “should start working now,” he urges, adding that “we are much further along the EU path with 14 closed chapters, than Croatia was with 15.”
What is already clear is that the Accession Treaty will most likely include stronger rule-of-law safeguards, as the EU institutions have learnt lessons from previous enlargement waves. “But once that is achieved, we want full membership, and we believe we deserve it,” Ambassador Marković concludes.
The state of EU-Montenegro relations
Montenegro submitted its application for EU membership in 2008. Candidate status was granted in June 2010, and accession negotiations began in 2012. To date, all 33 screened negotiating chapters have been opened, and 14 have been provisionally closed.
Moreover, in June 2024, Podgorica received a positive Interim Benchmark Assessment Report (IBAR), indicating that it has met the interim benchmarks in Chapter 23 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights) and Chapter 24 (Justice, Freedom and Security) – a prerequisite for closing chapters deemed ready for provisional closure. For these reasons, Montenegro is considered the most advanced country in the EU enlargement process, with the aim of closing all chapters by the end of 2026.
