Brussels – The last attempt by the Cyprus Presidency was unsuccessful, and the ball will soon be in Ireland’s court. The Hungarian “scrutiny reserve” on the opening of the remaining five clusters of negotiating chapters with Ukraine and Moldova was not resolved even at the technical-level meeting on 26 June and, as EU diplomats told The New Union Post, it will now be for the next rotating presidency of the Council to deal with the issue.
Following Péter Magyar’s government first putting its reserve on the table of the Working Party on Enlargement and Countries Negotiating Accession to the EU (COELA) – the Council body responsible for preparing the technical and political steps in the enlargement process – on 23 June, it did not change its position on either of the two candidates at the latest meeting, preventing the issue from being scrutinised by the 27 EU ambassadors in the Committee of Permanent Representatives (COREPER).
Negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova have been decoupled since the opening of Cluster 1 – ‘Fundamentals’ on 15 June and, technically, they now depend solely on assessments of each candidate’s progress in meeting the opening benchmarks for Cluster 2 – ‘Internal Market’, Cluster 3 – ‘Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth’, Cluster 4 – ‘Green Agenda and Sustainable Connectivity’, Cluster 5 – ‘Resources, Agriculture and Cohesion’, and Cluster 6 – ‘External Relations’.
EU sources highlight that a “scrutiny reserve” is not a formal opposition, but something more subtle. It means that Hungary “remains open” to changing its position on authorising the Presidency of the Council to send letters to both candidates inviting them to submit their negotiating positions on each cluster – before the Council adopts the EU’s common positions. The next meeting will be held on 3 July, just two days after the beginning of the Irish Presidency.
The “scrutiny reserve” of Magyar’s government is no longer a blanket block against Ukraine – as it was with Viktor Orbán – given both the “comprehensive agreement” with Kyiv on expanding the rights of the Hungarian minority in the Transcarpathia region. Yet, the Hungarian Prime Minister warned that the EU “cannot bypass” the Western Balkans “with a different kind of enlargement process” for Ukraine and Moldova.
However, the Commission had already recognised in 2025 that all six clusters were ready to be opened with both Kyiv and Chișinău. Moreover, since March, front-loading work has been carried out informally at the technical level to support progress on the reforms required to align national legislations with the EU acquis across all 33 chapters, allowing formal negotiations to advance more quickly once they begin.
While Ukraine could “open more clusters during the summer,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, Moldova is deemed ready to meet the goal of opening all the clusters already in July, also thanks to the fact that the so-called ‘package approach’, which linked the accession paths of Kyiv and Chișinău for more than four years, no longer applies. A “Terrific Tuesday” on 14 July is still possible, but it is becoming more at risk with each passing day. The most realistic scenario may now be the opening of not all five, but at least some of the remaining negotiating clusters.
The state of EU relations with Ukraine and Moldova
Just four days after the start of Russia’s war of aggression, on 28 February 2022, Ukraine submitted its application for EU membership, with Moldova following three days later, on 3 March. On 23 June 2022, the European Council endorsed the European Commission’s recommendation to grant Kyiv and Chișinău candidate status.
At the European Council meeting on 14 December 2023, EU leaders gave the green light to open accession negotiations. Following the Council’s approval of the negotiating frameworks, the first intergovernmental conferences with the two countries were held on 25 June 2024 in Luxembourg. As recognised in the 2025 Enlargement Package, the screening process has been successfully concluded with both Kyiv and Chișinău.
With Hungary vetoing the start of Ukraine’s EU negotiations, Moldova’s accession has also been put on hold, as Chișinău’s EU process is tied to Kyiv’s through the so-called “package approach” (which has linked the two dossiers from the very beginning).
On 17 March 2026, technical guidance was provided by the Commission to continue work on EU reforms across all six negotiating clusters, before the change of power in Budapest paved the way for the opening of Cluster 1 – ‘Fundamentals’ with both Ukraine and Moldova on 15 June. With this step, the two accession paths have been decoupled.
Once the first group of five negotiating chapters (out of 33) – focusing on economic criteria, the functioning of democratic institutions, and public administration reform – is opened, the other Clusters can follow with an unanimous decision by the Council.
