Brussels – Step by step, without too much fanfare and still the underdogs, the pro-EU membership camp in Norway is slowly but steadily advancing, aiming to close a gap with the anti-EU front that stood at 26 percentage points in August 2024 and has more than halved in the two years since.
As shown by the most recent poll conducted by the Oslo-based market research agency Opinion on behalf of the newspaper Altinget, 37% of Norwegian voters would vote “yes” if there were a referendum on joining the EU tomorrow, while 49% would vote “no” and 14% are undecided.
Although the results remain stable compared with a survey published in February 2026, what is particularly interesting is the annual trend in August, the only month in which polls have consistently been conducted. In 2023, the pro-EU camp surged to 35%, before falling to 30% one year later. Since then, there has been a slow but steady increase, with support for EU membership reaching 33% in 2025 and then its highest level in 2026.
On the contrary, the anti-EU front has experienced a clear loss of support, although it still holds a relative majority in the country. It remained above 50% until last August – 54% in 2023, 56% in 2024 and 55% in 2025 – before dropping to 49% in the latest poll. Meanwhile, the share of undecided voters has remained relatively stable – at around 11–14% – but it is now clear that they could play a decisive role in the event of a vote on EU accession or on reopening accession talks, as Iceland is about to do at the end of the month.
Breaking down the data from the most recent poll, support for the EU is highest among residents of Oslo, where a majority would vote “yes” – 53% compared with 36% who would vote “no”. The 60-and-over age group is the only one in which more people would support EU membership (48% to 42%). The 40–49 age group is the most staunchly opposed to EU membership (60%), followed by the under-30s (52%). However, younger people are also the group most likely to say they do not know how they would vote (20%).
In terms of political affiliation, it is particularly interesting to note that the “yes” share is greater than the “no” share among voters of the governing Labour Party (48% to 38%) and the Green Party (69% to 29%). However, the “no” share prevails among voters of the other three parties that currently support the socialist government: the Socialist Left Party (46% to 39%), the Red Party (62% to 23%) and the Centre Party (91%, with 9% undecided).
The parliamentary opposition is also divided. Voters of the Liberal Party (69% to 29%) and the Conservative Party (61% to 25%) are more in favour of EU membership, while those of the Christian Democratic Party (66% to 16%) and the right-wing Progress Party (66% to 23%) oppose it.
“If there is a large-scale change in the rules of the game, that could be Iceland,” said MP Trine Lise Sundnes in a recent interview with The New Union Post, referring to what could trigger a real debate on EU membership in Norway too – a “yes” vote in the Icelandic referendum on reopening EU accession talks on 29 August. Unlike when Denmark and Sweden joined the EU, “this time is different because Iceland and Norway share very similar interests in fisheries and maritime affairs,” she pointed out.
Supporting Reykjavík’s ‘two-stage process’ approach – “first ask the people for permission to open negotiations and only then have a new referendum on the results” – Sundnes nevertheless warned that the question of whether Norway will ultimately join the EU “will not be decided in Oslo, but in the rural areas, the small cities, the workplaces and the fisheries along the coast.”
The state of EU–Norway relations
Norway applied for EU membership in 1962 and again in 1967, but the process stalled following France’s veto of the UK’s accession (to which Norway’s application was tied). After negotiations were completed, the Accession Treaty was rejected in two popular referendums: first in 1972 and again in 1994 (following a second application in 1992). Since then, Oslo’s application has remained frozen but has not been withdrawn.
Despite this, Norway remains closely linked to the EU through its membership in the European Economic Area (EEA) Agreement, which unites all 27 EU Member States with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries – Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway – in the Single Market.
Oslo is also a member of the Schengen Agreement, giving its citizens the right to travel without a passport within the area, and is a signatory to the Dublin Regulation on asylum policy.
Additionally, Norway participates in a wide range of EU policies, agencies, and programmes, covering areas such as enterprise, environment, education and research, competition policy, state aid, social policy, consumer protection, tourism, and culture.
Trade relations between Oslo and Brussels are primarily governed by the EEA Agreement, which extends the Single Market to EFTA countries. As the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy and Common Fisheries Policy are not included under the EEA Agreement, Article 19 provides the legal basis for establishing rules to progressively liberalise agricultural trade on a mutually beneficial basis.
