Montenegro can be a “success story” for EU enlargement – but several elections in 2027 pose a risk

Brussels – Montenegro is steaming ahead towards the conclusion of its accession negotiations and the definition of the terms of the Accession Treaty. However, in the meantime, it needs to step up efforts to convince all member states – parties and citizens more than governments – that it would be an asset to the Union. Otherwise, there is a serious risk of remaining stuck in the waiting room after a round of key national elections in 2027.

“It is no secret that we have some crucial elections in 2027 and that some EU citizens are not concerned about Montenegro specifically, but about the enlargement of the European Union itself,” warned Montenegrin Minister of European Affairs Maida Gorčević, speaking to a pool of journalists in Brussels, including The New Union Post.

The presidential elections in France are “definitely one of the uncertainties” not only for Podgorica but for the European Union as a whole, “because you cannot predict what will happen at the polls and afterwards,” she said. At the same time, other elections due to take place next year in key EU member states must also be closely followed, from Poland to Italy, Spain and Greece. As Gorčević put it, “we should not take any country for granted at this moment, bearing in mind the political situation worldwide.”

Ultimately, the accession of new countries to the Union is decided by its current members and, for this reason, it is particularly worrying that “enlargement is not a good issue to bring into a political campaign.” However, the Montenegrin minister’s hopes lie in the current debate “on how to present Montenegro’s case to EU citizens,” because Podgorica’s accession “can be a success story” for EU enlargement and for the other candidate countries – “and the EU really needs a success story now,” she stressed.

This is particularly true after Iceland decided not to revive its accession talks. “For now, their chapter is closed,” Gorčević commented on the outcome of a referendum that closed the door to coupling Reykjavík’s and Podgorica’s EU paths. “But Montenegro’s chapter is still open and we have our own path to complete,” she recalled.

With 18 of the 33 chapters already closed, the goal is to finalise the work by the end of 2026 and sign the Accession Treaty – currently being drafted – “within the next year,” while preparing a budget plan for EU membership in 2028, which is expected to amount to around €75 million per year. Gorčević revealed that, of the 15 remaining chapters, nine have already been submitted to the Commission for approval, while six will be ready “by the end of the month.”

The next Accession Conference is expected to take place on the margins of the General Affairs Council on 22 September, when another chapter will be provisionally closed – Chapter 18 (Statistics). Afterwards, there will be three months to close 14 chapters, including the “most important and never-ending ones” – Chapter 23 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights) and Chapter 24 (Justice, Freedom and Security) – which require “relentless work” by the Montenegrin institutions.

Gorčević promised “100% alignment” with the EU in all fields – including visa policy, which is expected “by the end of October” – and she is not afraid of any proposal the European Commission may put on the table on 30 September regarding the new generation of safeguards in the future Accession Treaties. The only condition is to be treated as “equal future members,” with full membership and the rights granted by the EU’s founding Treaties. “All the obligations must also come with all the rights,” she made clear. This includes the right of veto, if it is not overcome before Podgorica’s accession.

All in all, even in the best-case scenario, everything will be in the hands of the 27 member states, which will have to ratify the Accession Treaty. For this reason, as Gorčević explained, “we try to speak with all the parties and political forces” to show not only that Montenegro’s accession will cost them almost nothing, but also the benefits it could bring for the geopolitical stability of the Western Balkans and for their enterprises. However, the Montenegrin minister admitted that “we cannot predict or influence the decisions of the member states.”

The state of EU–Montenegro relations

Montenegro submitted its application for EU membership in 2008. Candidate status was granted in June 2010, and accession negotiations began in 2012. To date, all 33 screened negotiating chapters have been opened, and 18 have been provisionally closed.

Moreover, in June 2024, Podgorica received a positive Interim Benchmark Assessment Report (IBAR), indicating that it has met the interim benchmarks in Chapter 23 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights) and Chapter 24 (Justice, Freedom and Security) – a prerequisite for closing chapters deemed ready for provisional closure.

On 22 April 2026, the EU ambassadors endorsed the establishment of the Ad Hoc Working Party on Drafting the Accession Treaty, which started working on 13 May. On 30 June, the European Commission presented the proposal for the financial package for Montenegro’s accession, amounting to €3.2 billion.

Montenegro is considered the most advanced country in the EU enlargement process, with the aim of closing all chapters by the end of 2026.