Brussels – When money enters the conversation, it is a sign that things are becoming serious, even if the technical and political negotiations are already well advanced. Montenegro can therefore look with optimism at the €3.2 billion financial package for its EU accession, presented by the European Commission on 30 June.
But what exactly is a financial package, and how would Montenegro’s package work in practice?
In simple terms, a financial package is the estimated amount of EU funding that a prospective new member state would receive under the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) – the EU’s seven-year budget – together with the budgetary adjustments required to accommodate its accession. It falls under Chapter 33 (Financial and Budgetary Provisions) of the EU accession negotiations.
The package sets out how the EU budget would be redistributed once a new member joins the Union. It estimates the funding that the acceding member state would receive under each policy area – such as Cohesion Policy, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), internal policies and administrative expenditure – as well as the country’s contribution to the EU budget. Taken together, these elements determine the overall budgetary impact of enlargement for both the existing member states and the new one.
Assuming that Montenegro joins on 1 January 2028 – which is Podgorica’s goal – the proposed financial package for the seven-year budgetary period is estimated at €3,189 million (in 2025 prices), which amounts to around €1 per EU citizen per year. As a senior EU official explained, “it is like one cup of coffee per citizen, although I do not know in how many of our member states you can buy a coffee for €1.”
On the side of Montenegro, “it is not easy” to calculate the exact contribution, but it is estimated to be roughly 1% of GDP, which would amount to around €75 million per year (approximately €500 million over the 2028–2034 MFF period).
And now to the technical details of Montenegro’s financial package.
While the allocation for Montenegro as a candidate country under Global Europe – the external action heading in the new MFF architecture – would amount to €1,085 million, the financial package available after accession on 1 January 2028 would come from two sources.
The first is the pre-allocated envelope, amounting to €1,991 million. This would correspond to Montenegro’s National and Regional Partnership Plan (NRPP) – the integrated plan setting out each member state’s investment priorities and reform agenda – and would comprise the entire €1,085 million pre-accession allocation under Global Europe, plus €277 million for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), €592 million for Home Affairs, and €37 million for Interreg.
The second source is the MFF ceiling increase – the overall upper spending limit that the EU is legally allowed to spend each year and for different categories of expenditure – amounting to €1,198 million. This additional funding would be distributed as follows: €86 million under Heading 1 – Economic, social and territorial cohesion, agriculture, rural and maritime prosperity and security; €523 million under Heading 2 – Competitiveness, prosperity and security; €147 million under Heading 3 – Global Europe; and €442 million under Heading 4 – Administration.
According to the senior EU official, the approach of transferring financing provided during the candidate-country phase (under Global Europe) to the funding available after accession (under the NRPP) would allow for a “swift” transition, requiring “only some adjustments” to avoid funding gaps in the first years of membership. This would also “significantly” reduce the financial contribution required from the current EU members.
Moreover, owing to the “dramatic” change in the overall methodology introduced in the EU’s 2028–2034 MFF – namely the transition to a system in which payments are released upon the fulfilment of predefined objectives – Montenegro’s Global Europe Plan will be prepared “in close alignment” with the NRPP Regulation through a performance-based approach. In fact, this is an approach that Podgorica is already experiencing under the Growth Plan.
It will now be for the Council to give the Commission the mandate to negotiate with the Montenegrin government, including the final allocation for the financial package, which could ultimately be reduced.
All considered, the most significant question mark is whether Montenegro will be able to join by 1 January 2028. EU diplomats say this is “unlikely,” as it would require all accession negotiations to be completed by the end of 2026, the Accession Treaty to be negotiated in record time, and ratified by all 27 EU member states in around six months – while the average in the past has been no less than one year. “Technically, it would be more realistic by summer 2028,” the sources note, even though the final decision will rest with the member states.
Here, two variables must be taken into account.
If there is a delay in Montenegro’s accession to the EU, “the adjustment will be pro rata,” meaning that allocations and contributions will be adjusted proportionally to its share of the 2028–2034 MFF at the time of accession.
If the next MFF starts later because of disagreements among EU member states – with Montenegro joining in the meantime – the “system of provisional twelfths” would be applied, with a monthly spending limit set at one twelfth of the previous year’s budget until a new budget is adopted.
On the overall financial issue, current discussions on possible cuts also to EU enlargement spending may affect Montenegro’s financial package. While “no major issue” is expected for the accession-country envelopes, the senior EU official warns that, if there is any impact, it would occur in the transfer of unallocated funds after accession.
Much like the Accession Treaty, it is “quite intuitive” to assume that Montenegro’s financial package could become a “logical reference point” for other candidate countries, except for Georgia and Türkiye “for obvious reasons,” and for Ukraine, as it would require “a separate proposal”. In the purely theoretical and “impossible” scenario of all six Western Balkan countries and Moldova joining by 1 January 2028, the net cost for the current 27 member states would amount to “€8 billion over the seven-year period.”
Concerning Iceland, if the 29 August referendum confirms the resumption of accession negotiations – which could then be completed at record speed – it would also require a financial package modelled on Montenegro’s. However, it seems more likely that Iceland would not pass through a Global Europe envelope but would move “immediately” to a National and Regional Partnership Plan.
The state of EU–Montenegro relations
Montenegro submitted its application for EU membership in 2008. Candidate status was granted in June 2010, and accession negotiations began in 2012.
In June 2024, Podgorica received a positive Interim Benchmark Assessment Report (IBAR), indicating that it has met the interim benchmarks in Chapter 23 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights) and Chapter 24 (Justice, Freedom and Security) – a prerequisite for closing chapters deemed ready for provisional closure.
To date, all 33 screened negotiating chapters have been opened, and 16 have been provisionally closed.
On 22 April 2026, the EU ambassadors endorsed the establishment of the Ad Hoc Working Party on Drafting the Accession Treaty, which started working on 13 May. Montenegro is considered the most advanced country in the EU enlargement process, with the aim of closing all chapters by the end of 2026.
