Brussels – There is a ‘stone guest’ in the entire EU enlargement process: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Türkiye, which is neither fully involved nor completely excluded. More than five years after the suspension of EU accession talks began in 2005, Brussels and Ankara are considering the possibility of a fresh start in their relationship. However, as demonstrated since 2016, migration remains the only issue truly on the table.
“Our relationship is as rich as it is complex. But one thing is clear, it is moving forward,” stated President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in Ankara, following her meeting with Turkish President Erdoğan on 17 December. The primary topic discussed was the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, which “offers new hope to the Syrian people, but it equally comes with risks,” von der Leyen cautioned, highlighting the “extremely volatile” situation on the ground.
In addition to the potential resurgence of Daesh in eastern Syria and the threat of terrorism, Ankara is deeply engaged in the regional dynamics. “Türkiye’s legitimate security concerns must be addressed,” however, “it is important to allow all Syrians, including all minorities, to be safe,” President of the European Commission added.
This is where the issue of migration management becomes apparent. “I want to acknowledge that Türkiye has consistently shouldered the responsibility of hosting millions of Syrian refugees over the years,” von der Leyen emphasised. Since 2016, the EU has provided Ankara with around €9 billion, and “an additional €1 billion for 2024 is on its way,” which can be adjusted according to the “new needs that might occur in Syria,” she announced.
However, Erdoğa wants more. “There is a need, more than ever, for stronger and more institutional relationship between Türkiye and the EU,” he stated during the press conference following the meeting. The Turkish President addressed EU leaders—who will meet on 19 December for the last European Council of 2024—asking them to lift “all restrictions” in bilateral relations, restart High-Level Dialogue, speed up visa issuance, and update the EU-Türkiye Customs Union. In this regard, von der Leyen announced that she had asked Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maroš Šefčovič to work on a number of trade barriers “immediately, together with you.”
The state of EU-Türkiye relations
Türkiye applied for membership in 1987, was granted candidate status in 1999, and has been negotiating EU accession since 2005. However, Türkiye’s application has been stalled since the failed coup in 2016, and accession negotiations have been on hold since 2018, in line with the European Council conclusions. As underlined in the 2024 Enlargement Package, the EU’s “serious concerns about the continued deterioration of democratic standards, the rule of law, the independence of the judiciary and respect for fundamental rights were not addressed.”
The EU-Türkiye High-Level Dialogue has been suspended since 2019, with Ankara’s foreign policy continuing to conflict with Brussels’ priorities, including military actions in Syria and Iraq, as well as the deployment of troops in Libya. Additionally, Ankara’s approach to delimiting maritime zones in the Mediterranean has challenged Greek borders—and, by extension, the EU’s external borders—south of the island of Crete. Tensions with EU Member States are further exacerbated by the long-standing diplomatic dispute over Cyprus. Türkiye is the only country to recognise the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, while efforts to reach a compromise have been stalled since 2017.
