What has become of the EU-mediated Belgrade–Pristina dialogue?

Brussels – Almost two years – 691 days, to be precise – have passed since the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia last flew to Brussels to meet in person for a high-level meeting with the EU High Representative aimed at advancing the normalisation of bilateral relations. Those tensions remain the main (but not the only) obstacle slowing both Balkan countries’ EU path.

The Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, if not entirely moribund, is now effectively frozen. And the chances of seeing it resume appear, at present, close to non-existent. This is due not only to the persistently fraught relations between the political leaderships in both countries, but also to institutional instability in Pristina and democratic backsliding in Belgrade – developments that are shaping the way EU institutions engage with both partners.

“We had the high-level Belgrade–Pristina dialogue planned. I had the agreement from both leaders [Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, ed.] but now we have elections in Kosovo coming up again, which is pushing this forward,” said a somewhat pessimistic EU High Representative Kaja Kallas before the informal breakfast with Foreign Affairs ministers from the Western Balkans on 11 May.

The EU’s foreign affairs chief told the journalists that she is working “separately with both of them,” with the goal of implementing the “agreements that are already in place” – more specifically those agreed in early 2024 and which have become an integral part of the European integration path for both countries. However, no date can currently be scheduled in Brussels for the next high-level meeting, with the present deadlock having become the longest in the 15-year history of the EU-mediated dialogue.

A stalled Belgrade-Pristina dialogue

The formal talks between Belgrade and Pristina – which began on 8 March 2011 – were the first in a series of negotiation rounds mediated by the European Union. The three main issues on the table were regional cooperation in the Western Balkans, freedom of movement between Serbia and Kosovo, and the alignment of national laws.

Seven months of negotiations produced initial agreements, including the end of the trade embargo, Belgrade’s recognition of Pristina’s customs stamps, and the exchange of land registry records and civil status documents related to births, deaths, and marriages in Kosovo. A further year and a half of technical-level agreements led to the first high-level Belgrade-Pristina dialogue in early 2013, chaired by EU High Representative Catherine Ashton.

The first major success was the signing of the First Agreement of Principles Governing the Normalisation of Relations – informally known as the Brussels Agreement – on 19 April 2013. This enabled work to begin on the Stabilisation and Association Agreement with Kosovo and the opening of Serbia’s EU accession negotiations.

However, two major issues remained unresolved: Belgrade’s recognition of Pristina’s sovereignty and the establishment of the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities in Kosovo, according to the Brussels Agreement.

From 2014 onwards, EU High Representative Federica Mogherini was tasked with mediating in an increasingly tense environment. The Belgrade-Pristina dialogue stalled in November 2018, when the Kosovar government imposed a 100% tariff on goods from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The deadlock between the two sides lasted until 12 July 2020, when EU High Representative Josep Borrell and then-EU Special Representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue, Miroslav Lajčák, brought the leaders of both countries back to the negotiating table three times that year. While these meetings did not produce a decisive breakthrough, a final agreement was considered in Brussels to be “a matter of months, not years.”

Tension escalated in northern Kosovo during the so-called ‘car plate dispute’ in mid-September 2021. Pristina required all Serbian vehicles entering Kosovo to replace their number plates, affecting the Serb minority in the border region. The issue was temporarily resolved through EU mediation, but the absence of a permanent solution led to renewed tensions. By the end of July 2022, roadblocks and barricades appeared at border crossings, and two unsuccessful high-level meetings in Brussels failed to break the deadlock.

The situation worsened when the Serb List (the dominant Serb political party in Kosovo, aligned with Belgrade’s interests) took control of protests. In November 2022, mass resignations occurred in the region’s public institutions, including the mayors of Kosovska Mitrovica, Zubin Potok, Zvečan, and Leposavić. Early elections were scheduled for December 2022 but were postponed to April 2023 due to new barricades erected at the end of the year at border crossings in northern Kosovo.

Meanwhile, the EU–mediated dialogue saw a significant development. On 27 February 2023, the 11-point Brussels Agreement defined the key commitments that both parties were expected to uphold. Although the text was not signed, it became binding through the implementation annex agreed at the meeting in Ohrid (North Macedonia) on 18 March. The two agreements became an integral part of the European integration path for both countries.

The next crisis emerged in May 2023, when protests against the newly elected mayors in Zubin Potok, Zvečan, Leposavić, and Kosovska Mitrovica escalated into violent clashes involving NATO-led KFOR troops. After an emergency meeting was convened in Brussels, “temporary and reversible” EU measures were imposed on Kosovo, due to Pristina’s failure to adopt a “constructive attitude” towards de-escalation.

The situation further deteriorated following a terrorist attack near Banjska Monastery on 24 September 2023. A day of clashes between Kosovar police forces and a group of around 30 armed men left one police officer and three attackers dead. Milan Radoičić, deputy leader of the Serb List party, later confirmed his involvement. Links to Belgrade emerged, while the United States denounced a “large military build-up” near the administrative boundary.

Following the resolution of the ‘car plate dispute’ through mutual recognition of vehicle documentation between December 2023 and January 2024, Pristina’s enforcement of the euro as the sole legal tender from 1 February 2024 disrupted public services in northern Kosovo, which had continued to operate under currency arrangements introduced in 2002. The last high-level meeting was hold on 26 June 2024, but it yielded no progress.

Political instability in both countries has slowed down the work of the new Special Representative, Peter Sørensen, over the past year, to the point that Borrell’s successor, Kaja Kallas, has not chaired a single high-level meeting of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue since becoming High Representative in autumn 2024.