Brussels – What if? Yes, what if Canada were to apply to join the European Union? It remains merely a suggestion, a remote possibility – but the impact of a second Trump administration in the United States is making even the most unlikely scenarios appear less far-fetched.
As Canadians face one of the most pivotal elections in their recent history, one point is clear across all major parties: the country must diversify its partnerships. The United States – its oldest and closest ally – can no longer be fully trusted. This opens the door to exploring a new, stronger relationship with Brussels.
From deepening economic and security ties to the most ‘extreme’ scenario – Canada becoming the EU’s 28th Member State – options are on the table. “It would be a shock for the US,” Maria Popova, Professor of Political Science at McGill University and Scientific Director of the Jean Monnet Centre Montreal, told The New Union Post. As the current US administration is “openly hostile” towards the European Union, such a move would run directly counter to Trump’s vision of “a simplified world order in which he can determine who controls what.”
The appeal of EU membership
“If we continue to see growing pressure from the US on Canada, or even steps suggesting attempts at annexation, I believe that could significantly increase Canadian support for EU membership as a form of protective alignment,” Professor Popova emphasised, discussing the reasons for considering EU membership scenario. Although not an immediate prospect, Popova highlighted the opportunities that such a choice could offer both Ottawa and Brussels at a time of mounting geopolitical instability.
The strongest argument in favour of EU enlargement to include Canada, as she noted also in a recent article on this topic, is to “make it harder for Trump and Putin to pivot towards a very anachronistic view of the world divided into spheres of influence” – with Europe falling under Russia’s sphere, and Canada within that of the United States. A political, economic and institutional alliance between Ottawa and Brussels “would dramatically disrupt this vision,” Popova confirmed, adding that together they would not only form “a massive economic bloc,” but, more importantly, would “preserve the transatlantic community without the US.”
A survey published in late February found that 44% of Canadians believe their country should join the European Union, compared to 34% who believe it should not. The European Commission’s Chief Spokesperson, Paula Pinho, said the EU was “honoured” by the survey results. But would it be legally possible for a country in North America to be included in the EU? Article 49 of the Treaty on the European Union states that “any European State which respects the values referred to in Article 2 and is committed to promoting them may apply to become a member of the Union.” However, the Treaty does not clearly define what constitutes a “European State.”
“There is no single, overwhelmingly clear obstacle set in stone,” Professor Popova emphasised, underlining the importance of “political will.” For decades, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia were regarded not as potential EU Member States, but as part of its neighbourhood. However, that perception shifted “very quickly” when the political context changed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In contrast, Morocco applied in 1987 but was swiftly rejected on the grounds of geographical criteria.
However, Professor Popova cautioned against drawing parallels with previous rejections. “Geography should not be the sole determining factor,” she argued, pointing to the proximity of Greenland—part of the Kingdom of Denmark – and the French islands of Saint Pierre and Miquelon, located just off the coast of Newfoundland. If we accept that the EU is not merely a geographical entity, but one based on shared political values and liberal democracy, then “Canada’s case is fundamentally different from Morocco’s.”
Moreover, such an enlargement would likely be “relatively straightforward,” as Canada would not require the kind of ‘Europeanisation’ typically associated with reforms on rule of law, social development, or anti-corruption measures. If political consensus were to emerge within Canada, “adopting the EU acquis would likely be smooth,” she concluded, while stressing that Brussels “could also benefit geopolitically” by demonstrating that Russia cannot realistically expect to dominate Europe, and that the EU is not a vassal of the United States.
Strengthening Canada–EU relations
All things considered, Canada’s accession to the EU currently appears an unlikely prospect. However, “that does not mean it cannot be deeply involved in EU policymaking and closely aligned with the Union,” warned Emmanuel Brunet-Jailly, Professor Public Policy and Jean Monnet Chair at the University of Victoria, in an interview with The New Union Post. What is more likely to happen is “a gradual shift in that direction – one that has already begun with the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement” signed with the EU in 2016.
Professor Brunet-Jailly argued that EU membership is typically viewed in binary terms—either inside or outside the Union. However, “there are many countries that are closely aligned with the EU without being members.” One such example is Iceland, a candidate country that froze its accession process but remains part of the Schengen Area, as “it brings significant advantages and positions the country closer to the EU.” This is why Ottawa, rather than focusing solely on EU membership – which raises complex legal questions – “should concentrate on the many policy areas where cooperation on budgets and regulations is possible,” he added, referencing a recent article he wrote on the subject.
Education is one of the areas where EU-Canada relations hold significant potential for growth, particularly given the “very ambitious research programmes” launched in Brussels, alongside Canada being “well placed to compete” in this field. Regarding security, Ottawa relies “heavily” on the US for military production – much like European NATO members – but this does not preclude collaboration with Brussels on “specific” defence projects. A shift in that direction is “certainly possible,” Professor Brunet-Jailly affirmed, highlighting the Arctic as a “strategic area for developing a strong partnership,” particularly in light of Canada’s geographic positioning.
But trade is the area that requires the most attention. Despite the strong economic relationship between Canada and the United States – with trade volumes that are “unmatched globally,” industries and production chains “deeply interconnected,” and entire US metropolitan regions “highly dependent” on Canadian electricity – Ottawa has already begun the process of disentangling itself from Washington through the CETA. The exchange of primary goods and services with continental Europe has surged in recent years, and, as Professor Brunet-Jailly noted, “when you compare the free trade agreement between Canada and the US with that between Canada and the EU, the latter is far more comprehensive.”
Last, but by no means least, are the political and policy relationships. Canada has strengthened its institutional ties with the EU through regular meetings between its parliamentarians and senators, Members of the European Parliament, and EU officials, while relations with US counterparts are increasingly strained. “Trump’s joke – which is no longer a joke – about Canada becoming the 51st US state has upset many Canadians,” Professor Brunet-Jailly remarked, adding, “I have never seen an incoming Canadian prime minister [liberal Mark Carney, ed.] publicly express such strong disapproval of the United States as we are seeing now.”
