Brussels – More than a year of deteriorating relations between Brussels and Belgrade could lead to an unprecedented decision. The EU might decide to freeze more than €1.5 billion allocated to Serbia under the Growth Plan over controversial judicial reforms and attacks on media independence, if the ruling party will not reverse its course of action.
“We are increasingly worried about what is happening in Serbia,” Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said during the structured dialogue with the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) on 20 April, adding that the Commission is “currently assessing whether the country still fulfils the conditions for payments” under EU financial instruments.
Commissioner Kos referred to laws that “undermine” judicial independence, the “crackdown” on protesters, and “recurrent meddling” in independent media. “We will continue to support Serbia on its EU path,” she added, but warning that the Commission expects the national authorities to “fully align” with the recommendations of the Venice Commission, to “restore the independence” of the media, and to “continuously improve” alignment with the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP).
In particular, the opinion of the Venice Commission – the Council of Europe’s advisory body on constitutional matters – on the judicial reforms is expected to be issued by the end of the month and may recommend amending or repealing the laws aimed at restructuring the courts and altering the system for appointing judges and prosecutors. According to Commissioner Kos, “we will wait to see how Serbia reacts” to the recommendations, with the expectation that Belgrade will “fully comply.”
If this will not be the case, the conditionality of the EU’s Growth Plan will come into effect. Around €110 million has already been disbursed, meaning that roughly €1.5 billion remains “under the question mark,” Commissioner Kos stressed. The preconditions for the disbursement of EU funds include the rule of law, democratic institutions, a multi-party parliamentary system, pluralistic media, an independent judiciary, and free and fair elections. “This is an important point,” she added, referring to the expected early parliamentary elections in 2026 and the presidential elections in 2027.
Deteriorating relations
Against a backdrop of violent repression of ongoing student-led pro-rule of law protests in Serbia, anti-EU government narrative, democratic backsliding, and close ties with Russia – as highlighted in the latest Enlargement Package – relations between EU institutions and the candidate country deteriorated sharply, reaching a peak on 17 December 2025. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić boycotted the EU–Western Balkans Summit in Brussels, stating that he sought to protect “Serbia and its interests.”
The year 2026 opened in an even more strained atmosphere. Brussels has sharply criticised the Serbian authorities for adopting judicial reforms without consultation with the Council of Europe and EU institutions, as well as for the violence and irregularities reported during the local elections on 29 March. Two days later, police raided the Rectorate of the University of Belgrade, clashing with hundreds of students.
“Universities must remain places of critical thinking and open debate, free from any form of intimidation,” Commissioner Kos said after meeting the Rector of the University of Belgrade, Vladan Đokić, just hours before a hearing at the European Parliament on 20 April. “This matters for Serbia’s democratic and European future.”
The impact of the controversial reforms in Serbia
On 28 January, the Serbian parliament passed a package of amendments to core judicial laws through an expedited procedure, without public debate or consultations, and bypassing established legislative standards. The so-called “Mrdic laws” – named after the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) lawmaker Uglješa Mrdić, who formally submitted them – introduced changes to a total of five judicial laws.
The main concerns over the potential attempt to place the prosecution under political control and to obstruct investigations into high-level corruption and organised crime relate to the reform of the Public Prosecutor’s Office for Organised Crime (TOK). Under the new rules, more than half of its prosecutors are set to lose their mandates within 30 days and be reassigned to the posts they held before joining the TOK, leading to a predictable paralysis in handling the most complex cases.
Over the past year, the Public Prosecutor’s Office for Organised Crime has launched sensitive investigations into several major drug cartels, the systemic corruption that led to the tragedy in Novi Sad in November 2024, the Belgrade Higher Prosecutor’s Office, two former ministers, and a current minister.
The deadly collapse of the canopy at Novi Sad railway station – which claimed 16 lives – and the subsequent wave of protests by Serbian citizens and students triggered prosecutors’ investigations into systemic corruption in major infrastructure projects involving Chinese contractors. The Public Prosecutor’s Office for Organised Crime has reported direct pressure from President Vučić to drop the investigation, as well as institutional obstruction, including the withdrawal of the police, the Tax Administration, and the Anti-Money Laundering Directorate from joint investigative efforts.
Furthermore, the TOK has charged Culture Minister Nikola Selaković with abuse of office for lifting the protected cultural heritage status of the General Staff Building in central Belgrade, paving the way for a $500 million real estate development project – the so-called ‘Trump Tower Belgrade’, a clear example of corrosive capital – linked to the US investment firm Affinity Partners, associated with Jared Kushner. US President Donald Trump‘s son-in-law later withdrew from the mixed-use luxury hotel and condominium project after Selaković was indicted in December 2025.
