Brussels – Viktor Orbán sought popular backing for his opposition to Ukraine’s EU accession talks—and he found it. Or at least, that is the impression he wishes to give. “I have come here with a strong mandate. My voice has become louder, because I carry the voice of more than two million Hungarians,” the Hungarian Prime Minister declared as he arrived at the European Council in Brussels on 26 June.
Orbán presented to the other 26 EU leaders the results of a so-called “referendum” held in Hungary on 20 June, which asked citizens whether they supported opening accession negotiations with Ukraine. Out of 2,278,000 valid votes, “95% are against and 5% in favour,” he announced, following days of silence over the outcome of the consultation—an initiative promoted and backed by his ruling Fidesz party.
Though the anti-Ukraine Voks 2025 consultation is legally non-binding, it will be used as a clear political message. “A unanimous decision is required to open negotiations. That unanimity is not there,” Orbán said, underlining the consequences for the EU. While everything is technically in place to open formal negotiations on Cluster 1 – Fundamentals in the Council of the European Union, the 27 governments “will not reach a common position” because of Hungary’s veto. “The others – 26 countries, or however many – can say what they wish,” he added provocatively.
In response, the European Council’s conclusions on Ukraine were adopted by agreement among 26 member states, reaffirming support for Kyiv’s path towards EU membership. Acknowledging the candidate country’s accession-related reforms “under the most challenging circumstances,” the European Council “invites” the ministers for European Affairs to take “the next steps” in the accession process, “in line with the merit-based approach,” and to open clusters “when the conditions are met.”
A questionable consultation in Hungary
Do you support Ukraine becoming a member of the European Union? This was the question posed in the government-backed questionnaire—first distributed on paper, then made available online – which ran for months following Orbán’s threats to block the process at the European Council in March. The ruling Fidesz party launched a large-scale campaign, including giant posters in public spaces, urging citizens to vote against Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
However, the entire initiative is shrouded in legitimate concerns over whether this informal consultation genuinely reflects the will of Hungarian citizens regarding their government’s ongoing veto. Firstly, the online system left considerable room for manipulation. Although users were asked to provide personal details, the system allowed any name to be entered as long as the link was accessed via a functioning email address.
Secondly, a poll conducted by the Republikon Institute in April 2025 suggests that a narrow majority of Hungarians actually support Ukraine’s EU accession. According to the survey, 47% of respondents were in favour of Kyiv joining the EU – provided it follows the standard timeline for candidate countries – while 46% were opposed. This is nearly half the level of opposition claimed by the so-called “referendum” launched by Orbán.
It is worth recalling that the Hungarian Prime Minister did not oppose the political decision to open Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations on 14 December 2023. Instead, he left the room when the European Council was adopting its conclusions: a move that allowed him to avoid endorsing the decision, while technically refraining from vetoing it. Now, however, he is using every opportunity to block Kyiv’s progress – especially given that completing the accession process will require approximately 150 unanimous decisions by current EU member states in the Council.
At its core, the entire anti-Ukraine manoeuvre appears driven by electoral calculation. Opposition leader and MEP Péter Magyar (Tisza) considers Ukraine’s EU accession possible within the next decade at best – and has pledged to hold a formal referendum on the matter should he come to power. Pre-empting this stance, Orbán has seized the opportunity to craft a politically expedient narrative: portraying Magyar as a pro-Ukrainian figure colluding with Brussels and working against Hungary’s national interests.
The strategy is designed to boost Orbán’s standing ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections. As things stand, Ukraine’s EU accession talks are likely to remain in deadlock for at least another ten months.
The state of EU-Ukraine relations
Just four days after the start of Russia’s war of aggression, on 28 February 2022, Ukraine submitted its application for EU membership. On 23 June 2022, the European Council endorsed the European Commission’s recommendation to grant Kyiv candidate status. At the European Council meeting on 14 December 2023, EU leaders gave the green light to open accession negotiations. Following the Council’s approval of the negotiating frameworks, the first intergovernmental conferences were held on 25 June 2024 in Luxembourg.
With the aim of opening the first EU accession negotiation cluster in the first half of 2025, the screening process has been ongoing since last autumn. As recognised by the Council, progress has been made in areas such as the rule of law, judicial and public administration reform—with the renewal of the judiciary being a key focus – alongside efforts to strengthen freedom of expression and media independence, and further enhance the anti-corruption institutional framework.
As anticipated by Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos, both Ukraine and Moldova “are ready” for Cluster 1 – ‘Fundamentals’ to be opened. The first group of five negotiating chapters focuses on economic criteria, the functioning of democratic institutions, and public administration reform. Moreover, Commissioner Kos has made it public that two additional screenings have been sent to the Council for both Chișinău and Kyiv—on Cluster 2 – ‘Internal Market’ and Cluster 6 – ‘External Relations’. The unanimous approval of all 27 EU member states in the Council is now the only step required.
