And now what? All the work expected on EU enlargement after the summer break

Brussels – “There is no rest for us.” Irish Minister of State for European Affairs Thomas Byrne‘s words capture the spirit driving the renewed momentum behind EU enlargement under the Irish Presidency of the Council.

For the next few weeks, work will slow down during the summer break before resuming in late August and early September. A wide range of dossiers will be back on the table, from the long-awaited proposal on the review of pre-enlargement policies to accession negotiations with – at least – four candidate countries. Let’s take a look at each of them.

Chronologically, the first day back after the summer break for those working on EU enlargement will be 29 August. The timing is dictated by an external factor: the referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations in Iceland. If Icelandic voters give the green light to reopening a process that has been on hold since 2023, senior EU officials confirmed to The New Union Post that both the Council and the Commission “are ready” to welcome Reykjavík’s government to Brussels to discuss the state of play of the 28 negotiating chapters already opened, 11 of which have been provisionally closed.

Speaking of accession negotiations, another date to mark in red on the calendar is 22 September. After a “Mega Monday” and a “Super Tuesday”, another crucial day on the margins of the next General Affairs Council is already on the horizon. “What has happened today motivates us all,” Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said at the end of the fourth Accession Conference held in a single day on 14 July. “A special energy is evolving among candidates, who are motivated by each other’s progress,” she added.

Montenegro aims to close all 15 remaining negotiating chapters, which are “all at the final stage, at around 90%, with some of them at 100%,” Prime Minister Milojko Spajić revealed. This means that several chapters are expected to be closed at each of the next Accession Conferences, including Chapter 33 (Financial and Budgetary Provisions), which is linked to the EU’s adoption of the financial package for Montenegro’s accession, and Cluster 1 – ‘Fundamentals’, the first cluster to be opened and the last to be closed. The final draft of the Accession Treaty is also awaited by the end of the year.

Following the historic closure of its first three chapters, Albania will seek to move swiftly through the remaining 30 in order to meet its goal of completing the process by the end of 2027. While Prime Minister Edi Rama did not give a clear answer to a question from The New Union Post about the state of Tirana’s preparedness, his government is under increasing pressure due to citizens’ protests over compliance with rule-of-law and environmental protection standards. An issue that could affect the accession negotiations, particularly on Chapter 27 (Environment and Climate Change) and the five chapters of Cluster 1.

Ukraine and Moldova remain linked by the “package approach”, despite expectations that the opening of Cluster 1 would mark a turning point in their decoupling. As The New Union Post understands, the most realistic scenario is the opening of one cluster at each General Affairs Council meeting between September and December. The fulfillment of the interim benchmarks (IBAR), which will make it possible to begin closing chapters – currently more achievable for Moldova than for Ukraine – may prove to be the moment when, “de facto, it becomes clear that [the decoupling, ed.] has happened,” EU officials said.

One of the most awaited dates for EU enlargement after the summer break is undoubtedly 30 September. After almost a year of delay, the Commission will publish its pre-enlargement policy reviews, which will set out the first proposals on the future of an enlarged Union. The growing emphasis on a new generation of Accession Treaties and on the mechanisms needed to prevent backsliding on the EU’s core principles suggests that the proposal will evolve into something more closely linked to the accession of new members than to a broader reform of how a Union of 27+ members should function.

The chosen date is no coincidence. The proposal will be presented just two weeks before the European Council is due to hold a strategic discussion on EU enlargement and institutional reform at its 15 October meeting. Expectations are already high. A commitment from the 27 leaders “would help a lot,” Commissioner Kos stressed. “Something like what we experienced in Helsinki in 1999,” when EU leaders committed to being ready to welcome new members “from 2002 onwards, as soon as they fulfilled the criteria.”

Finally, although the exact date has yet to be confirmed, the Commission’s decision on the redistribution of EU funds under the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans is expected in September. Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia are likely to see their allocations increase, while Serbia and Kosovo are expected to lose part of their funding for failing to implement the agreed reforms during the first payment period. Bosnia and Herzegovina will have until the end of December before its first grace period expires.