Brussels – As four candidate countries advance towards EU membership – potentially even before 2030, as outlined in the 2025 Enlargement Package – European institutions and public opinion alike seem finally to realise that the prospect of the Union’s expansion is a realistic scenario. Yet amid suggestions to limit voting rights for the newcomers, pre-enlargement reforms, probationary periods, and supposed “strong safeguards” in the new Accession Treaties, confusion reigns over Brussels.
To bring some clarity, the European Commission is preparing a communication on the EU’s internal policy reviews and reforms – expected in the coming weeks – to provide initial guidance for the debate on how to prepare an enlarging Union. While the 27 member states seem all but ready to reform the EU’s decision-making process to make it swifter and not subject to veto threats, the debate has suddenly shifted to the newcomers.
While some governments would like to admit new members without granting them full voting rights and veto powers for a transitional period, the Commission is more focused on ensuring that “future Accession Treaties will need to contain stronger safeguards, while keeping the fundamental principle of equality,” Commissioner Kos told the members of the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) on 4 November.
When talking about “strong safeguards,” the Commission refers to its ability to ensure that “positive dynamics in the rule of law, democracy, and fundamental rights are maintained also after EU accession,” the Commissioner responsible for enlargement policy added, concerned with “avoiding any backsliding on commitments” by the new member states made during the ongoing EU accession negotiations.
This could involve specific provisions in the Accession Treaties during the transitional period, allowing for the suspension of certain rights if the rule of law in new member states is undermined. However, Commissioner Kos made it clear that “the only thing I am against is the establishment of two different categories of member states – with a first rank and a second rank.”
Answering questions from journalists at the press conference on the 2025 Enlargement Package, she emphasised that “there is no debate on cutting voting rights in the Commission,” because “once we accept new member states, they also need to have the same rights.”
“Strong safeguards” and voting rights
To understand what kind of safeguards could be considered and how transitional periods might be used, we must wait for the communication – a non-legislative initiative – likely to be published by the Commission after the first EU Enlargement Forum, scheduled for 18 November. Commissioner Kos has indicated that the focus should be on ensuring “the higher quality of reforms” even after EU accession and on “reassuring our citizens that the integrity of our Union and its democratic values are protected.”
In an interview with The Financial Times, the Commissioner for Enlargement spoke about preventing “Trojan horses” from joining the EU. The backsliding on the rule of law in Hungary, years after its 2004 accession, immediately comes to mind. However, she ruled out any “implications for the past” and, looking to the future, stressed that her goal is to address EU citizens’ concerns that “all the member states” will uphold the principles enshrined in Article 2 of the Treaty on the European Union.
Precisely regarding concerns about absorption capacity and the alleged risks to the functioning of EU structures, Commissioner Kos urged that “we have to explain clearly what is a real problem and what is not.” She gave a striking example: “Montenegro has 600,000 people – this is like Antwerp – Albania has 2.4 million – this is like Rome. Don’t tell me that we are not capable of absorbing 3 million citizens,” she bluntly stated.
“If they fulfill all the criteria,” the two frontrunners may be ready to join the EU in a few years – while Moldova and Ukraine still need to formally start accession negotiations before assessing the real feasibility of the pre-2030 target. According to the Commissioner for Enlargement, Montenegro and Albania can be “integrated without big changes,” as they “will not affect our finances or our agriculture, and there will be no implications for the decision-making process.” In other words, there are no excuses – not even the Union’s lack of capacity to prepare for the accession of new members – to delay their EU accession process.
Overcoming the blockages
The communication on the EU’s internal policy reviews and reforms will also provide a basis for discussions on how to strengthen the current decision-making process. “Everything here is possible,” Commissioner Kos said, urging member states “not to shy away from having the necessary discussions on what we need to do to be ready.”
This could also mean addressing the unanimity rule and veto powers, which have long blocked and continue to hinder the EU enlargement process. “If we want to deliver, is unanimity really necessary for all 150 steps in every accession process?” For the first time, Commissioner Kos publicly supported the idea of “sticking to unanimity to grant candidate status and to finish [the process, ed.],” the only steps where Article 49 of the TEU explicitly requires unanimous decisions. “I will fight for this every time,” she promised.
Meanwhile, the Commission must face the Hungary’s veto on the start of negotiations with Ukraine, which has effectively put also Moldova’s accession on hold – as the two accession processes are linked since the very first moment by the concept of ‘coupling’ two (or more) dossiers. Commissioner Kos revealed that her services are working with the Danish presidency on the idea to “get the mandate from the Council to go on with the work in the working groups.”
If this is possible, “we can discuss and work cluster by cluster” with the two candidates even without the negotiating talks officially opened, which will need to wait the “all the conditions are met.” As the Commissioner for Enlargement put it, Kyiv and Chișinău “do not need Orbán to work on the necessary reforms, and we can help them.”
