Brussels – At the eleventh hour, in a photo finish, the EU institutions can celebrate another ‘Super Tuesday’ for accession negotiations. Although Montenegro has been fast-tracked and is expected to provisionally close three more chapters on 12 October, the package of accession conferences scheduled for 13 October – originally limited to Albania – will also include Ukraine and Moldova, following a last-minute agreement among the 27 member states.
Three months after the first so-called ‘Super Tuesday’, the agenda on the sidelines of the General Affairs Council is expected to include the tenth Accession Conference with Albania, which will provisionally close Chapter 20 (Enterprise and Industrial Policy), and the fourth Accession Conferences with Ukraine and Moldova, at which Cluster 2 – ‘Internal Market’ and Cluster 3 – ‘Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth’ are expected to be opened.
The breakthrough came on Monday afternoon, when the Ukrainian Parliament passed legislation on minority rights aimed at regulating the educational rights of national communities. Péter Magyar’s Hungary had made the opening of the two groups of chapters conditional on the Ukrainian law – the result of a historic compromise reached in June. As a result, an urgent meeting of COREPER (the Committee of Permanent Representatives) was convened to approve the EU’s draft common positions and pave the way for the Accession Conferences with Ukraine and Moldova the following day.
“I welcome the unity shown across the political spectrum. This is crucial to keep reforms moving,” said Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos, announcing the opening of two more negotiating clusters on 13 October. “Despite Russia’s relentless attacks on civilians, we are determined to keep moving forward together to prepare for Ukraine’s future inside our Union.”
Kyiv’s and Chișinău’s accession paths remain linked by the so-called ‘package approach’, despite expectations that the formal opening of Cluster 1 – ‘Fundamentals’ in June would mark a turning point in their decoupling. After Cluster 6 – ‘External Relations’ was opened in July, Hungary slowed down the opening of further clusters for Ukraine and, consequently, for Moldova as well. This has complicated the two candidates’ efforts to begin negotiating the provisional closure of accession chapters by the end of the year.
On 6 October, the Ukrainian law was approved by the relevant parliamentary committee, paving the way for Hungary to give the green light to the screening letters for the two candidate countries at the EU ambassadors’ meeting on 7 October. On the same day, the Irish Presidency of the Council sent letters to Kyiv and Chișinău inviting them to submit their negotiating positions. However, the final adoption of the law by the Verkhovna Rada was considered a prerequisite for Budapest’s approval of the formal opening of the two clusters.
Both Ukraine and Moldova have already opened seven accession chapters out of 33 – five under Cluster 1 and two under Cluster 6. The number would rise to 24 with the opening of Cluster 2 – nine chapters – and Cluster 3 – eight chapters. At the moment, there is still no political will in the Council to decouple the two accession paths. Only the fulfilment of the interim benchmarks (IBAR) – which will make it possible to begin provisionally closing chapters – may represent the moment when, as EU officials expect, “de facto, it becomes clear that [the decoupling, ed.] has happened.”
Albania has opened all the accession chapters, with the first three provisionally closed on 14 July: Chapter 25 (Science and Research), Chapter 26 (Education and Culture) and Chapter 30 (External Relations). At the tenth Accession Conference, scheduled for 13 October, Chapter 20 (Enterprise and Industrial Policy) is expected to be provisionally closed, bringing the total to 4.
Montenegro has opened all the accession chapters, with 18 already provisionally closed. At the 29th Accession Conference, scheduled for 12 October, negotiations on Chapter 17 (Economic and Monetary Policy), Chapter 18 (Statistics) and Chapter 19 (Social Policy and Employment) are expected to be provisionally closed, bringing the total to 21 and further narrowing the gap towards the goal of completing all accession negotiations by the end of 2026.
