Brussels – The EU enlargement autumn sprint already looks to have stumbled, although it is not derailed. Four candidate countries had been expecting an acceleration after the summer break, with the aim of meeting their respective targets by the end of the year. Instead, the cold shower came at the first opportunity. No Accession Conference with any of the negotiating candidates is scheduled to take place on the margins of the General Affairs Council on 22 September.
After a “Mega Monday” in June and a “Super Tuesday” in July – with multiple Accession Conferences held on a single day – the potentially crucial September date for EU enlargement will pass with no updates on accession negotiations, for different reasons in Montenegro and Albania on the one hand, and Ukraine and Moldova on the other.
The common denominator, in any case, is that the margin for error for all the candidates is narrowing, with only three General Affairs Councils scheduled for the remainder of 2026. “The aim is to hold [the Accession Conferences, ed.] as soon as possible; the work is still ongoing,” an EU source told The New Union Post.
Another bump in the road for EU enlargement
Montenegro aimed to provisionally close at least one chapter – Chapter 18 (Statistics) – as Montenegrin Minister of European Affairs Maida Gorčević anticipated. However, diplomatic sources explained to The New Union Post that the parliamentary procedure in the Netherlands to approve the closure of this chapter is scheduled for 23 September. Therefore, there are no shortcomings on either the Montenegrin or EU side, but simply a need to respect a domestic procedure, which is not expected to create any problems.
Further 14 chapters are due to be closed – including Chapter 23 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights) and Chapter 24 (Justice, Freedom and Security) – in order to meet the goal of finalising the work by the end of 2026 and signing the Accession Treaty – currently being drafted – in 2027, while preparing a budget plan for EU membership in 2028. As Minister Gorčević revealed, of the 15 remaining chapters, nine have already been submitted to the Commission for approval, while six will be ready “by the end of the month.”
Almost the same can be said for Albania. Following the historic closure of its first three chapters, Tirana sought to move swiftly through the remaining 30 in order to meet its goal of completing the process by the end of 2027. The drafting of the EU Common Position on Chapter 20 (Enterprise and Industrial Policy) is still being discussed at the level of the Working Party on Enlargement and Countries Negotiating Accession to the EU, the Council’s preparatory body responsible for the EU enlargement process and relations with candidate countries, with the approval of all 27 capitals expected “soon.”
The situation is entirely different for Ukraine and Moldova, which remain linked by the ‘package approach’, despite expectations that the opening of Cluster 1 – ‘Fundamentals’ in June would have marked a turning point in their decoupling. As The New Union Post understands, one member state – Péter Magyar’s Hungary – is still unwilling to unblock the opening of new clusters with Ukraine. This is blocking the process for both candidates, which had hoped to open one cluster at each General Affairs Council meeting between September and December.
Moldova, in particular, finds itself in a paradoxical situation once again. It is considered ready to open at least Cluster 2 – ‘Culture, Creativity and Inclusive Society’ by all member states, including Hungary, but there is still no political will to decouple its accession path from Ukraine’s. The goal remains to open all accession chapters by the end of 2026, with multiple clusters opened at each Accession Conference. It is clear now that only the fulfilment of the interim benchmarks (IBAR), which will make it possible to begin provisionally closing chapters, may represent the moment when, as EU officials expect, “de facto it becomes clear that [the decoupling, ed.] has happened.”
