Brussels – Political tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina have escalated further following a landmark ruling against Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik, raising concerns over the country’s fragile stability and its path towards EU membership.
After the Bosnian Court sentenced the Bosnian Serb leader to one year in prison and banned him from politics for six years over his separatist moves, leading MEPs on Bosnia and Herzegovina urged all political actors to “refrain from any political threats and other potentially harmful actions” amid fears of further destabilisation.
While the judgment will only become final after the expected appeal process, the ruling on 26 February followed a year-long trial on charges that Dodik refused to comply with decisions made by High Representative Christian Schmidt. A pro-Russian nationalist, the Bosnian Serb president was indicted by state prosecutors in August 2023 after signing laws that suspended rulings by both the Constitutional Court and the High Representative.
Dodik has already stated that he will defy any conviction and has threatened “radical measures” in response, including the secession of the Serb-majority entity in Bosnia. On 25 December 2024, the National Assembly of Republika Srpska ordered Serb representatives in state institutions to boycott votes on Sarajevo’s EU integration efforts until what it calls a “politically motivated process” against their leader is halted.
“We urge all actors to exercise utmost restraint,” said Ondřej Kolář (EPP), Standing Rapporteur for Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Davor Ivo Stier (EPP), Chair of the European Parliament’s Delegation for relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina, reiterating that “Bosnia and Herzegovina is an independent, sovereign state, the territorial integrity of which is indisputable.” Notably, the European Parliament has repeatedly called for “targeted sanctions” against destabilising political actors in the country, including Dodik.
“The EU expects all political actors to respect the decisions of the courts and acknowledge their independence and impartiality without applying any pressure or interference,” said Anouar El Anouni, spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, responding to questions from journalists in Brussels.
However, pressure is mounting from Bosnian Serb leader’s closest allies. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić flew to Banja Luka, describing the judgment as “designed to break down Republika Srpska and the position of the Serb people.” Dodik enjoys the full support of Vučić, who could offer him shelter in Belgrade. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán condemned the verdict as a “sad example of the weaponisation of the legal system aimed at a democratically elected leader.” Meanwhile, Russia denounced it as “a politically motivated persecution by the West.”
In response, the European Commission’s spokesperson urged international partners, “including Serbia,” to be “equally committed” to Sarajevo’s EU perspective “as a single, united, and sovereign country,” and to refrain from further polarising the political crisis in the EU candidate country.
How Dodik shaped Bosnia’s crisis
Dodik has been one of the main obstacles to Sarajevo’s progress towards EU membership for years. Since October 2021, he has been championing a secessionist agenda, seeking to remove central state control in crucial areas such as the military, tax system, and judiciary, more than 20 years after the end of the country’s ethnic war. The European Parliament has called for economic sanctions in response to these moves.
Concerns intensified in late March 2023 when the Bosnian Serb government proposed a draft law establishing a registry of foreign-funded organisations and foundations. The so-called ‘foreign agents’ law mirrors one enacted in Moscow in December 2022 and was approved by the Banja Luka National Assembly in late September, drawing sharp criticism from Brussels. Simultaneously, amendments to the Criminal Code were proposed to reintroduce penalties for defamation, which came into effect on 18 August. These laws, which impose fines for defamation committed through the media, have raised serious concerns about freedom of speech.
The secessionist provocations were further compounded by Dodik’s ties with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. On 20 September 2022, he visited Moscow for talks with President Putin, provoking Western partners by endorsing the illegal annexation of Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine. These provocations continued in January 2023, when Putin was awarded the highest honour of the Serb-majority entity in Bosnia, during Republika Srpska’s National Day celebrations – a holiday deemed unconstitutional under State law.
On 23 May 2023, Dodik’s second trip to Moscow led to concerns in Brussels about the EU’s failure to impose sanctions. Although EU sources revealed a framework of restrictive measures had been prepared for some time, Viktor Orbán’s Hungary blocked their implementation, as foreign policy decisions require unanimity within the Council.
