European defence may boost EU-Western Balkans ties – but at the cost of democratic scrutiny

Brussels – As European defence is emerging as a key topic of public interest across EU Member States, questions around the consequences of potential growing interdependence with candidate countries are increasingly present in the background of the debate – especially when it concerns the region most closely linked to the European Union: the Western Balkans.

“If the Western Balkans demonstrate that they are capable of contributing to European defence and security – to the extent they are entitled to – I believe this can only strengthen the level of trust among individual Member States,” said Bojana Zorić, analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), in an interview with The New Union Post. With defence emerging as one of the EU’s most “pressing concerns,” deeper cooperation through such agreements could help foster “mutual trust” between Brussels and the candidate countries.

However, the risk of double standards is hard to ignore. European defence initiatives, such as Rearm Europe, “run in parallel with the enlargement process”, while the EU accession framework includes only a limited focus on security and defence. Points of convergence are few—particularly when it comes to upholding the rule of law and democratic principles in countries like Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which remain leading arms producers and exporters in the Western Balkans.

“Sometimes the security dimension has been excluded from the democratic considerations required to meet the criteria for joining the European Union,” Zorić observed, noting that cooperation in this area “has actually been functioning, unlike other negotiating chapters.” What is particularly concerning is that the “decline of democracy and authoritarian tendencies” may undermine these countries’ prospects of becoming full-fledged EU Member States – “but not their actual cooperation with the EU in the field of defence.”

Even Serbia – a militarily neutral country with close ties to states the EU considers unfriendly (such as Russia and China) – has continued to deepen its defence engagement with the West. It has purchased weapons from France, taken part in joint exercises with NATO, and actively contributes to EU-led peacekeeping missions. “Regardless of changes in governance and the state of democracy, the level of defence cooperation has remained consistent,” the EUISS analyst noted. While Serbia’s EU accession process has largely stalled, “collaboration in the field of security and defence has actually intensified in recent years.”

Opportunities and challenges of European defence

The White Paper on Defence Readiness 2030 and the ReArm Europe initiative – which includes a proposal for joint procurement through the new €150-billion SAFE Instrument – provide the framework for closer defence cooperation between the EU and candidate countries. The Western Balkans are not able to receive loans, but they could participate in common procurements. “The door has been left open to all possibilities, but the practical modalities of how this will be implemented remain to be seen,” Zorić explained.

According to the EUISS analyst, several Western Balkan countries could play a meaningful role in European defence, with the EU potentially benefiting from the region’s expertise in the production of small arms and ammunition. “They have the industrial base, the infrastructure, the know-how, and a relatively low-cost workforce,” she noted, adding that this potential “has not yet been fully seized” – particularly in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. “Around 90% of the factories across the region are located in these two countries.”

Moreover, the presence of numerous ports – such as Porto Romano, currently under construction, located north of Durrës and to be linked to Corridor 8 connecting the Adriatic Sea to the Black Sea – could be highly significant for the European military-industrial complex. As Zorić noted, “these interconnections relate to strategic mobility,” identified in the White Paper as one of the seven capability areas the European Union should prioritise.

One of the main challenges in defining relations within joint procurement initiatives concerns market access. Much of the discussion focuses on removing obstacles for EU Member States – such as access to finance, availability of military personnel, and increased cross-certification of jointly produced defence products. “This remains a work in progress for candidate countries, which do not yet have the same level of standards,” Zorić noted. Nevertheless, the EU could see “potential in Albania, North Macedonia, and Montenegro, as they are already NATO members,” with procedures, structures, and military capabilities aligned with the EU’s strategic objectives.