Brussels – To overcome the Hungarian obstacle and prevent the accession process of Ukraine and Moldova from sinking into a swamp of delays and postponements – where all enlargement promises could drown – Brussels is considering every possible option. From highly creative ideas for the post-accession phase to safeguard clauses in the accession treaties, nothing seems to be ruled out.
For the Commission, however, it remains essential to continue aligning the two candidate countries with the reforms required to join the Union. A process that, in technical terms, would be monitored from start to finish – from the opening of clusters to the closing of chapters, once accession negotiations are formally underway. Although this institutional practice is not required by the Treaties, nothing can yet take shape until unanimity is reached in the Council. Yet this does not mean that a temporary solution cannot be found.
During the presentation of the 2025 Enlargement Package, Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos revealed that discussions are underway with the Danish Presidency on the possibility of “getting a mandate to proceed in the working groups, to discuss and carry out the necessary work on reforms,” despite the formal process, as mentioned, still being at a standstill due to Orbán’s Hungary veto.
Many wondered what is needed now in the Council – a unanimous decision, or an informal green light from the Danish Presidency following consultations with the 27 governments. Answering a question from The New Union Post during an event hosted by Carnegie Europe, DG NEAR Director-General Gert Jan Koopman made it clear that “the Commission does not really need a mandate” to engage with Ukraine and Moldova at the working level, as it can freely send documents to the Council, “and we will do it whatever happens.”
Since April, the EU executive has been sending papers to the Council outlining the level of preparedness of Ukraine and Moldova to open at least three clusters – Cluster 1: ‘Fundamentals’, Cluster 2: ‘Internal Market’, and Cluster 6: ‘External Relations’ – and recommending the start of negotiations on these groups of chapters. Even though they have not been formally endorsed, “the Council working group has been looking at them,” Koopman said, noting that the issue now is “whether the Commission can take that process forward.”
While the Commission could advance engagement at the working level, it remains to be seen whether the Danish Presidency has “enough leeway in the Council” to act on this proposal and “do something with it,” Koopman said. A discussion in a working group remains just that – a discussion – whereas what the Commission and the two candidate countries need is “the position of the largest possible number of member states. And this is what we are discussing to date.”
The state of EU relations with Ukraine and Moldova
Just four days after the start of Russia’s war of aggression, on 28 February 2022, Ukraine submitted its application for EU membership, with Moldova following three days later, on 3 March. On 23 June 2022, the European Council endorsed the European Commission’s recommendation to grant Kyiv and Chișinău candidate status.
At the European Council meeting on 14 December 2023, EU leaders gave the green light to open accession negotiations. Following the Council’s approval of the negotiating frameworks, the first intergovernmental conferences with the two countries were held on 25 June 2024 in Luxembourg. As recognised in the 2025 Enlargement Package, the screening process has been successfully concluded with both Ukraine and Moldova.
With Hungary continuing to veto the start of Ukraine’s EU negotiations, Moldova’s accession has also been put on hold, as Chișinău’s EU process is tied to Kyiv’s through the so-called “package approach” (which has linked the two dossiers from the very beginning). While the Commission considers it possible for Moldova to complete accession negotiations by 2027, opening them “by November” this year, Ukraine’s goal is to do the same by the end of 2028, and is now expected to meet the conditions allowing the Council to open “all clusters before the end of the year.”
Once Cluster 1 – ‘Fundamentals’ – the first group of five negotiating chapters (out of 33), focusing on economic criteria, the functioning of democratic institutions, and public administration reform, is opened, the other groups of negotiating chapters can follow. The unanimous approval of all 27 EU member states in the Council is now the only step remaining.
