Pristina – After years of political stability and the completion of its first full four-year parliamentary mandate since independence in 2008, Kosovo now faces an unexpected period of uncertainty. The 2025 parliamentary elections have left Europe’s youngest country in a state of limbo, gripped by political polarisation across all parties, threatening to trigger a prolonged stalemate and damage its international standing.
With 99% of ballots counted, preliminary results show support for the governing party, Vetëvendosje, has dropped from over 50% in 2021 to 40.80%, leaving Prime Minister Albin Kurti struggling to secure a majority in Parliament. At the same time, the opposition parties could soon reclaim power and begin talks on forming a coalition government that would exclude the left-wing nationalist party, which has held power for the past four years.
On 9 February, around 800,000 Kosovars cast their votes—out of 1,970,944 eligible voters—to elect the new composition of the 120-member National Assembly. Turnout stood at 40.59%, down from the 48.78% recorded in the 2021 parliamentary elections. It should be noted that the diaspora vote has yet to be counted, which could benefit Prime Minister Kurti’s Vetëvendosje.
The EU Election Observation Mission, led by MEP Nathalie Loiseau (Renew Europe), will release its initial findings on the electoral process on 11 February. So far, no major incidents have been reported by the national Central Election Commission.
What happened in the 2025 Kosovo parliamentary elections?
As vote counting continues, Vetëvendosje and its allies—centre-right Guxo! and liberal Alternativa—are projected to secure 47 seats in Parliament, an 11-seat drop from 2021. Ruling party supporters have taken to the streets of Pristina in celebration, as Prime Minister Kurti stated that “our winning coalition will establish the new Kurti 3 government, and we will continue our work.” However, with the majority threshold set at 61, he faces an uphill battle in securing coalition partners.
The Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) is projected to finish second with 22.16% of the vote—a rise of 4.82 percentage points from 2021—while the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) follows closely behind at 17.59 (up 4.86 points). Together, they are expected to secure 45 seats—25 and 20 respectively—but will likely need support from smaller parties and ethnic MPs to form a majority, in case of a coalition agreement.
The ‘For a Winning Kosovo’ coalition—which includes the right-wing Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), the Social Democratic Initiative (NISMA), and the Conservative List of Kosovo (LKK)—is projected to secure the remaining 8 seats, matching its 2021 result, with 7.46% of the vote. With the 5% threshold in place, the ‘Family List’ coalition—comprising the liberal New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) and the Islamic-democratic Justice Party (PD)—is set to fall short of securing a seat in Parliament, with support projected at 2.26%.
Of the 20 seats reserved for national minorities, Serb List—the dominant Serb party aligned with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić‘s interests, which held all the 10 seats reserved for the ethnic Serb minority in the previous legislature—is expected to remain the leading force. However, increased competition within the Serb political camp could see other ethnic Serb parties securing at least one seat.
This time, Prime Minister Kurti cannot rely solely on his party’s strength and on deals with some of the 20 MPs elected among ethnic parties, but he will need to secure coalition partners. Both the PDK and LDK have ruled out supporting Vetëvendosje, while the right-wing AAK and the social-democratic NISMA could enter talks with them. In theory, a government could emerge without the largest party in the National Assembly.
A complicated political landscape
“Pressure will increase significantly for whoever is in power after these elections,” said Dardan Koçani, Field Coordinator for Kosovo at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, speaking to The New Union Post. The incoming government will face not only pressing domestic challenges—from unemployment to the rising cost of living, wages, pensions, and healthcare—but, more critically, the thorniest issue in its foreign policy, with profound implications for both security and home affairs: reaching an agreement with Serbia to resolve the long-standing dispute over the normalisation of relations.
In other words, the election will determine who will lead negotiations with Belgrade, either within or outside the EU-mediated Dialogue, which has been stalled for the past two years. “An agreement under the new U.S. administration led by Donald Trump would not be easy, and would hardly benefit Kosovo,” Koçani emphasised.
Both the establishment of the Association/Community of Serb-majority municipalities in Kosovo, as outlined in the Brussels Agreement, and a land swap plan between Serbia and Kosovo, possibly backed by Trump, would carry “huge costs in terms of public support” for the Kosovar leader who signs them, Koçani argued. He also warned that “no government will last more than one or two years,” and the political forces in opposition are “likely” to emerge “much stronger” in any subsequent early elections.
Pristina is enduring one of its most difficult moments in relations with both the EU and the U.S., following four years of Kurti’s leadership, which prioritised an agenda focused on reclaiming full sovereignty ‘from corner to corner,’ as Vetëvendosje’s electoral slogan put it in reference to northern Kosovo. As a result of this assertive policy, the region inhabited predominantly by the Serb minority witnessed an unprecedented wave of violence between 2022 and 2023.
Furthermore, the EU has imposed “temporary and reversible” measures on Kosovo, urging the government to take steps to de-escalate tensions in the north. Pristina is also feeling the impact of Trump’s decision to freeze funding for various projects through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) for 90 days all over the world. “The country is struggling,” Koçani told The New Union Post.
