Brussels – “We are opening the full toolbox of Global Europe to candidate countries – not only technical assistance, but also support for reforms and investments, backed by resources”. If EU enlargement is truly a priority for the Union, the 2028-2034 MFF should become the tool to demonstrate this commitment.
Presenting the European Commission’s proposal for the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), President Ursula von der Leyen stressed that EU enlargement is “not just a political objective,” but rather “a strategic investment in Europe’s stability and prosperity.” While we cannot predict how the accession negotiations will unfold in the coming months and years, the figures in the proposed EU budget represent the first litmus test of these promises.
A new Instrument in the 2028-2034 MFF
“Global Europe” is one of the four pillars of the proposed 2028-2034 MFF (which must still be discussed, negotiated and approved by the Council and the European Parliament as co-legislators). Of the overall €1.9 trillion budget in current prices (€1.7 trillion in 2025 prices), €215 billion is allocated to external action (€190 billion in 2025 prices). Within this, the new Global Europe Instrument is set to receive €200.3 billion (€176.8 billion in 2025 prices), compared to the €98.4 billion available under the current MFF (2018 prices).
According to the proposed Regulation, simplification, coherence, flexibility and impact of EU action are the four “guiding principles” of Global Europe, which will replace several existing Regulations: the NDICI–Global Europe Instrument, the Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA III), the Reform and Growth Facilities – for both the Western Balkans and the Republic of Moldova – and the Ukraine Facility.
However, “given the magnitude and unpredictability of the needs,” reconstruction and pre-accession assistance for Ukraine will exceed the 2028-2034 MFF ceilings. This means that the €100 billion (€88.8 billion in 2025 prices) allocated to “ensure continuity” with the Ukraine Facility’s approach will be financed from the so-called ‘headroom’ of the MFF and implemented through Global Europe. According to the Commission, this approach aims to “strike a balance between providing credible support” to Ukraine while “protecting the external instrument’s ability to deliver” on needs and priorities in other regions.
As this single instrument is intended to serve a wide range of external action policies – including EU enlargement, neighbourhood, international partnerships and humanitarian aid – it will be structured around five geographic pillars and one global pillar, each with both a programmable and a non-programmable component. With regard to EU enlargement specifically, the “Europe: Enlargement and Neighbourhood East” pillar is set to receive €43.1 billion (€38.1 billion in 2025 prices).
The European pillar will encompass all current candidate and potential candidate countries – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Iceland, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Türkiye and Ukraine – as well as the Neighbourhood East partners, Armenia and Azerbaijan. In Russia and Belarus, only independent civil society organisations and free media “may also benefit” from EU support, “in full compliance with Union restrictive measures.” In addition, several other European countries are included: Andorra, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Norway, San Marino, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the Vatican City.
In the context of EU enlargement assistance, the European Commission is expected to adopt an implementing act to establish “uniform conditions” for applying the Global Europe Regulation. Particular attention will be given to rule of law and human rights conditionalities, the control systems to be put in place ahead of accession, and – “where relevant” – the link between disbursing policy-based loans and the implementation of performance-based plans.
What if a new member joins the EU?
As has happened in the past, the 2028-2034 MFF includes a specific revision clause addressing the potential accession of one or more new members to the Union. According to Article 11 of the Regulation, in such an event the EU budget “shall be revised accordingly pursuant to the relevant Accession Treaties,” taking into account the expenditure requirements “resulting from such accession to the Union.”
With nine candidate countries (and one potential candidate, Kosovo) at different stages of accession negotiations, and with Montenegro, Albania, and Moldova committed to completing these negotiations before 2030, questions regarding the impact of enlargement on the overall EU budget have become increasingly pressing.
In this scenario, a revision of the MFF is “logical,” President von der Leyen commented, emphasising the potential need for negotiations “depending on the size of the country” joining the EU. Such discussions and negotiations would not only address the “phase-in of contributions” of new members, but also other specific issues, including the “phase-in of Cohesion payments and agricultural payments,” she added, responding to concerns from several current member states about the potential impact of Ukraine on these policy areas.
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