Brussels – At the last possible moment, and with the very real threat of another major cut to funds from Brussels, the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina finally adopted the Reform Agenda needed to access the EU Growth Plan.
“The EU path continues unstoppably,” celebrated the Chairwoman of the Council of Ministers, Borjana Krišto. “Today, I’m very happy. Bosnia and Herzegovina has shown much-needed unity,” echoed Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos. The adoption came on 30 September—the very last day available to prevent another 10% of funds from being lost, after more than €100 million had already been withdrawn in July.
But the story is far from over. The ball is now in Brussels’ court, with the Commission reviewing the final documents and the EU member states set to approve them. Only once this process is complete will Sarajevo be able to access the remaining €976.6 million. “Theoretically, because under the logic of the Growth Plan, the country must deliver reforms in order to unlock the funds,” warns Adnan Ćerimagić, Senior Analyst for the Western Balkans at the European Stability Initiative (ESI), speaking to The New Union Post. And more political obstacles and risks loom on the horizon.
What is next for the Reform Agenda
“The entire process has been far from transparent in the negotiations between the government and the European Commission,” Ćerimagić explains, noting that Bosnia and Herzegovina was the only country that had not submitted a draft of the reform agenda. As a result, the European Commission took steps to put pressure on its partner.
In practical terms, approving the Reform Agenda meant sending a more advanced version of the activity lists, aligned with EU requirements, to Brussels for formal approval. Like all Western Balkan countries, Bosnia now faces reform deadlines starting in June 2025 and recurring every six months until the end of 2027. “But what will happen now? By December, Bosnia will need to implement all measures agreed for the first two deadlines,” warns ESI’s Senior Analyst.
While urging all Bosnian political actors to adopt the Reform Agenda during a press conference in Sarajevo on 22 September, Commissioner Kos said that “through the Growth Plan, we can offer citizens the benefits of the EU,” including free financial transactions within the EU via the SEPA system and the ‘Roam Like at Home’ policy for calls and internet data. The ultimate goal is to improve living conditions and quality of life, “so that young people would prefer to seek opportunities at home rather than leave the country,” she added.
However, Ćerimagić warns that “there is still a risk of losing funds if reforms are not implemented.” For Bosnia and Herzegovina, the situation is even more complex than for other Western Balkan recipients, as the Reform Agenda involves not only the central government but also the entities, the cantons within the Federation, and the Brčko District. “This will require coordination, if not fully harmonised implementation, of the agreed reforms,” he notes, adding that it remains “unclear” how the Commission will ultimately assess the effectiveness of their implementation.
The next challenges on the EU path
The adoption of the Reform Agenda marks an encouraging first step for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s EU path, but much remains to be done. A year and a half after the EU decided to open accession negotiations with Sarajevo, “the country cannot afford to lose more time,” warned Commissioner Kos during her visit, calling on pro-European forces to unite and “take all relevant steps to hold the long-awaited first intergovernmental conference on EU accession.”
To achieve this, two key reforms are needed—a new law on the State Court and one on the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council, “fully in line with European standards”—as well as the appointment of an operational chief negotiator to advance the screening process. This last issue is “desperately” needed, Commissioner Kos noted, noting that “we have to go through more than 100,000 pages” of Bosnian legislation aligned with the EU acquis. “This is not a political position; we need one person to address what needs to be done and who steers the process inside the country.”
However, as ESI Senior Analyst Ćerimagić points out, “the EU path is not unfolding in a vacuum.” It is set against the broader political context surrounding Milorad Dodik, the former president of Republika Srpska, who was sentenced to one year in prison over his separatist actions. “The EU process has become hostage to a political struggle, as Banja Luka attempted to use it to negotiate a better deal,” he adds, stressing that Commissioner Kos has played a key role in keeping the process on track. According to Ćerimagić, “making no progress on EU accession was preferable to advancing through behind-the-scenes deals.”
The coming months will be crucial. Developments will depend not only on the early presidential elections in Republika Srpska on 23 November, but also on the general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina in October 2026. “The ruling coalition at state level has already broken down,” Ćerimagić observes, following the Bosnian Serb Alliance of Independent Social Democrats’ (SNSD) continued support for Dodik even after the court ruling. With the EU Growth Plan and the prospect of opening accession talks, “it remains to be seen whether a coalition can be re-formed” to govern for the year ahead.
The Republika Srpska issue
Dodik has been one of the main obstacles to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s progress towards EU membership for years. Since October 2021, he has been championing a secessionist agenda, seeking to remove central state control in crucial areas such as the military, tax system, and judiciary, more than 20 years after the end of the country’s ethnic war. The European Parliament has called for economic sanctions in response to these moves.
Concerns intensified with the law approved in September that established a registry of foreign-funded organisations and foundations. The so-called ‘foreign agents law’ mirrors one enacted in Moscow in December 2022. At the same time, amendments to the Criminal Code reintroduced penalties for defamation. These laws, which impose fines for defamation committed through the media, have put freedom of speech in Republika Srpska at risk.
The secessionist provocations were further compounded by ties with Russia. On 20 September 2022, Dodik visited Moscow for talks with Putin, endorsing the illegal annexation of Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine. In January 2023, he awarded Putin the Order of Republika Srpska during the Serb-majority entity’s National Day celebrations—an event deemed unconstitutional under state law. On 23 May 2023, Dodik’s second trip to Moscow raised concerns in Brussels about the EU’s failure to impose sanctions against him. EU sources revealed to The New Union Post that a framework of restrictive measures had been prepared for some time, but Orbán’s Hungary blocked their implementation through its veto power within the Council.
The judicial case was the event that ultimately triggered the crisis. After Dodik signed laws nullifying rulings from both the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and the Office of the High Representative, Bosnian prosecutors brought him before the Court in Sarajevo. On 25 December 2025, the National Assembly of Republika Srpska instructed Serb representatives in state institutions to boycott votes on Sarajevo’s EU integration efforts, denouncing what they described as a “politically motivated process.”
On 26 February, Dodik was sentenced to one year in prison and barred from holding political office for six years. His mandate as President of Republika Srpska was officially terminated on 12 June, with early elections scheduled for 23 November. Nevertheless, the Serb-majority entity’s National Assembly rejected the Court’s ruling and continued to recognise Dodik as president. The ruling SNSD party eventually confirmed it would participate in the elections. On 30 September, Dodik announced that SNSD’s candidate would be Siniša Karan, the current Minister of Scientific and Technological Development and Higher Education of Republika Srpska.
The state of EU-Bosnia and Herzegovina relations
Bosnia and Herzegovina submitted its official request for EU membership on 15 February 2016. More than six years later, on 15 December 2022, it was granted candidate status. The EU institutions moved forward with the European Council’s decision to open accession negotiations on 21 March 2024.
Despite the Bosnian political leadership’s stated commitment, reform momentum has since stalled. Further efforts are needed to address the 14 key priorities outlined in the European Commission’s 2019 Opinion, as well as the steps detailed in the 2022 Recommendation. The Council has affirmed its readiness to adopt the negotiating framework only once these conditions have been met.
