Brussels – And here we still are, stuck in a wait worthy of Godot, waiting for a strategic communication from the European Commission that has been delayed for months and has now even been dropped from the tentative agenda of the College of Commissioners. The EU’s pre-enlargement reforms look very much like a chimera – something everyone claims they want to see, yet secretly fears because of its possible consequences. And so, it seems easier to postpone it a little longer.
The communication is “still in the oven,” EU sources familiar with the dossier told The New Union Post. The Commission’s spokesperson’s service said it had “no information to share on the timing,” adding that the reason for a delay of more than three months – and counting – compared with the original timetable is “simple”: further work on the text “was still needed.”
The European Commission had been expected to publish the communication on pre-enlargement reforms on 4 November, alongside the presentation of the 2025 Enlargement Package, but it was ultimately delayed until after the first EU Enlargement Forum, scheduled for 18 November. After two postponements, the Commission’s communication was expected “by the end of 2025, or the beginning of next year,” said Marko Makovec, Head of Cabinet of Commissioner Kos.
But it is worth returning to the oven metaphor and – pushing it a little further – asking whether leaving such a delicate and eagerly awaited dish inside for so long does not risk burning it, making it indigestible for guests who may move on to another course. Namely, an EU enlargement whose main ingredient is no longer the reforms needed to prepare the Union itself to welcome new members, through an innovation of its architecture and rules unseen since the Lisbon Treaty almost twenty years ago.
The risk should not be underestimated, for several reasons. First and foremost, the stakes are high. The EU-27 is increasingly revealing itself to be a rusty mechanism, ill-equipped to respond swiftly to the accelerating pace of global challenges, largely because of the very rules that govern the Union – above all the principle of unanimity. It is not difficult to foresee that admitting new members without rethinking more streamlined modes of governance would only exacerbate existing dysfunctions, leaving a Union of 30+ members even slower and less responsive than it already is.
Then there is the entire debate surrounding the negotiations for peace in Ukraine, which could leave the EU holding the hot potato of an accelerated accession process for Kyiv by 2027. Behind the scenes, EU institutions are already exploring ways to overhaul a merit-based system that has long relied on standardised negotiating chapters and compliance with fundamental criteria. Yet without significant reforms to the functioning of EU policies and the redistribution of funds, opposition from current member states could easily extend far beyond Hungary.
What to expect on pre-enlargement reforms
What the European Commission will publish is a communication – a soft law instrument setting out a strategic approach but carrying no legally binding force. Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos has anticipated that the proposal on the EU’s pre-enlargement reforms will focus on what can already be done under the current Treaties, and on those areas where a broad consensus is emerging.
Available tools include the passerelle clauses – legal mechanisms that allow a shift in decision-making procedures without a formal treaty amendment, such as moving from unanimity to qualified majority voting. Policy reviews will cover strengthening sectoral policies, values, and the budget. Building on the communication, the European Commission will engage with the Parliament and the Council to determine to what extent it will be possible to make progress with the co-legislators.
Head of Cabinet Makovec confirmed that “we are operating within the framework of the Treaties.” He noted that the work will also take into account that the current EU enlargement methodology, introduced in 2021, has been taken hostage by the “bilateralisation” of the EU accession process – meaning that “problems arise when bilateral issues introduced by some member states bring to a halt a process intended to drive reforms” in the candidates.
For the Commission, one possible solution could be “reducing the number of unanimous decisions in the Council from 150 to 70” during the intermediate stages of each candidate’s EU accession process, “merging them into only the most important decisions.” This is because “we have to move full speed ahead with the enlargement process and leave it to the legislators to decide how to proceed with the EU reforms,” Makovec stressed.
Regarding the plan suggested by some member states to admit new members without granting them full voting rights and the veto power – a way to externalise the problem of unanimity in the EU’s decision-making process onto the newcomers – Commissioner Kos already made it clear that in von der Leyen’s cabinet “there is no debate on cutting voting rights,” because “once we accept new member states, they also need to have the same rights.”
Head of Cabinet Makovec added that “we will not propose anything that goes against the core principle of the EU, which is equality.” On the contrary, “the elephant in the room” must be addressed – which Commissioner Kos referred to as the Trojan horse: “Regimes in Beijing and Moscow are willing to make us fail, and they have plans to change governments in some of the Member States. We need to make sure that new members will not be vulnerable.”
This is where the “safeguards” on political and security issues may be considered in the future Accession Treaties, but “they should not in any way limit the voting rights or other rights of the new Member States,” Makovec concluded, stressing that equality among members and their citizens “is what the EU is about.”
