Brussels – First, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly confirmed that EU membership is one of the security guarantees Ukraine needs in the peace negotiations to end the Russian full-scale invasion, brokered by the ever-unpredictable US President Donald Trump. Later, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that this is a real prospect the EU can seriously offer Kyiv.
In short, 2025 has unexpectedly shown that Ukraine’s EU accession is closely tied to the peace talks, and that their outcome could unpredictably shape how this process unfolds, diverging from all we have known so far in the seventh wave of accession in EU history.
“Ultimately, the prosperity of a free Ukrainian state lies in EU accession. It is also a key security guarantee in its own right,” said von der Leyen after a call with Zelensky and European leaders to coordinate the next steps of the common position at the negotiating tables. “Accession does not only benefit the countries that join. As successive waves of enlargement show, the whole of Europe benefits,” she added.
Security guarantees and deadlines
Since August, the potential role of EU accession in the current negotiations has been discussed at technical and political levels between Ukraine, the US and European counterparts. On paper, this can represent a strong guarantee because of the “mutual defence clause” enshrined under Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU). Yet the risk is that this guarantee remains purely theoretical, as the EU has neither sufficient deterrence capacity nor contingency plans in place that would make this collective defence effective against the threat of Russian aggression.
At the last European Council, Zelensky confirmed that joining the Union “is part of this [negotiating, ed.] package which Ukraine is negotiating and counting on.” For Kyiv, the date of EU accession is “of utmost importance,” and the latest draft of the peace proposal under negotiation – backed by European negotiators – envisages Ukraine joining the EU by 1 January 2027 through a fast-tracked process.
Such a move would imply admitting a new member state without the full completion of all 33 negotiating chapters, forcing EU institutions to reconsider the whole logic of the accession framework. However, there is absolutely no indications whether this option could realistically be pursued and, if so, how the technical work should be done – considering the accession process is all about respecting very strict standards (the Copenhagen criteria).
With Hungary currently blocking the start of Ukraine’s accession talks and EU institutions limited to engaging with Kyiv only at working level for now, policy discussions are increasingly converging around an integration model based on political accession followed by an extended transitional phase. Under this approach, reforms would continue within the EU framework rather than outside it. Meanwhile, Kyiv must continue to work on delivering a ten-point reform plan to be implemented by the end of 2026, as agreed during an informal meeting hosted in Lviv on 11 December.
The state of EU relations with Ukraine
Just four days after the start of Russia’s war of aggression, on 28 February 2022, Ukraine submitted its application for EU membership. On 23 June 2022, the European Council endorsed the European Commission’s recommendation to grant Kyiv candidate status.
At the European Council meeting on 14 December 2023, EU leaders gave the green light to open accession negotiations. Following the Council’s approval of the negotiating frameworks, the first intergovernmental conference was held on 25 June 2024 in Luxembourg. As recognised in the 2025 Enlargement Package, the screening process has been successfully concluded and Ukraine is now ready to open all clusters.
With Hungary continuing to veto the start of Ukraine’s EU negotiations and Kyiv’s goal to complete them by the end of 2028, on 11 November the Danish presidency secured enough informal support among the member states in the Council to continue engaging with the candidate country at working level. The discussions – focused on monitoring progress in the implementation of the EU-related reforms – are taking place solely at a technical level, with no political decisions and no clusters of chapters formally opened or closed.
Once Cluster 1 – ‘Fundamentals’ – the first group of five negotiating chapters (out of 33), focusing on economic criteria, the functioning of democratic institutions, and public administration reform, is opened, the other groups of negotiating chapters can follow. The unanimous approval of all 27 EU member states in the Council is now the only step remaining.
