Brussels – Nothing is set in stone, yet EU and non-EU sources alike are all pointing to the same date and place: 16 June in Luxembourg could be marked in red on the calendar for Ukraine, Moldova and Montenegro – for different reasons and with differing levels of expectation. Still, all three candidates are looking towards the same horizon: further progress in the EU enlargement process.
Lifting vetoes, opening accession talks on one or all clusters, provisionally closing negotiating chapters. Kyiv, Chișinău and Podgorica approach the next General Affairs Council with their own goals in mind, waiting for the 27 EU member states to take bold decisions on how far their hopes can go.
Let’s see the prospects for each of them.
Ukraine – lifting the Hungarian veto
For Kyiv, the big prize is finally opening accession talks through the lifting of the Hungarian veto, which has blocked the process for almost two years. Following the change of government in Budapest, Prime Minister Péter Magyar is expected to unblock the opening of negotiations, but much depends on whether the two countries can reach a provisional agreement on the rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine.
If conditions allow, the European Commission is expected to table a proposal to open negotiations on Cluster 1 – ‘Fundamentals’ at the General Affairs Council on 16 June. All 27 member states will need to positively assess Kyiv’s alignment with the opening benchmarks for the first cluster of chapters, which focus on economic criteria, the functioning of democratic institutions and public administration reform.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and some EU governments are aiming to open all six groups of negotiating chapters. Yet, for the time being, this appears highly ambitious, as it remains unclear whether even the minimum objective will be achieved. Much will also depend on a potential meeting between Magyar and Zelensky, as well as on the impact of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz‘s proposal for “associate membership”.
Moldova – opening all accession clusters
Chișinău is awaiting the lifting of the Hungarian veto on the start of Ukraine’s accession talks just as much as Kyiv is – in some ways, even more so. Since the very beginning in 2022, the two European paths have been linked through the so-called “package approach” – meaning that, when one candidate stalls, the other has to wait as well, even if everything is ready for it to move forward (the same happened to Albania and North Macedonia until September 2024).
In other words, Moldova has been indirectly affected by the Hungarian veto, despite the fact that Budapest has raised no objections to the opening of accession talks with Chișinău. In any case, once accession talks formally begin, the paths of Ukraine and Moldova will naturally be “decoupled”, with each candidate proceeding at its own pace.
All hopes in Chișinău are pinned on a positive outcome at the General Affairs Council on 16 June, with the aim of formally opening not only Cluster 1 but all six negotiating clusters. The “all-in” approach for the next Accession Conference is driven by the intensive preparatory work under way since spring 2025 and the so-called “front-loading” process launched in March 2026 – when technical guidance was provided to both candidates to continue work on EU reforms across all six negotiating clusters at the informal level.
Montenegro – closing more accession chapters
Podgorica’s goal is, in a sense, less ambitious, but no less crucial. Discussions are ongoing on the potential closure of Chapter 2 (Freedom of Movement of Workers) and Chapter 28 (Consumer and Health Protection), which could take place at a new Accession Conference on the margins of the General Affairs Council on 16 June.
In this scenario, the total number of provisionally closed chapters would rise to 16 – almost half of the total – while the Ad Hoc Working Group on Drafting the Accession Treaty has been established and has started to operate in mid-May. At present, faster progress is being made on Chapter 28, while Chapter 2 is proceeding at a slower pace. Several EU sources confirmed that other chapters might appear in the coming weeks.
Speaking to The New Union Post in the aftermath of the latest Accession Conference in March, Ambassador Petar Marković, Head of Mission of Montenegro to the EU, anticipated that “a multitude of chapters” would be ready for provisional closure by the end of the Cyprus Presidency – “and what remains will be the work under the Irish Presidency.”
