Brussels – At this year’s most-awaited annual meeting of world leaders, Europe’s future and its current complexities emerged as central topics. As all eyes are on how U.S. President Donald Trump’s decisions could impact the world, the 2025 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos is questioning the EU’s role, responding to calls from potential future members for the Union to prove itself as a credible and influential player on the continent.
“The elephant in the room is the EU’s decision-making process and the architecture of the current Union,” Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković pointed out during his speech at panel Enlarge to Prosper: Will Europe Grow? on 22 January. “With 36 Member States, it is clear that this will be a different organisation” both the past and the present, he added.
One of the key issues concerns the fourth Copenhagen criterion—the capacity of the Union to absorb new Member States while maintaining the momentum of the European integration process. EU enlargement has implications for “budgetary costs, its impact on beneficiary countries, and its effect on EU policies,” as Plenković highlighted. He referred to the “very positive will” at the EU leaders’ table to address this process to engage in discussions on this process, “like we have not seen for years.”
In Davos, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos acknowledged that EU enlargement “is also about absorbing new members,” emphasizing that it involves three parallel paths: “Negotiating with candidates, preparing the EU, and working with Member States to address their concerns.” However, ongoing challenges within the EU are heavily impacting the process. At present, Brussels cannot accept candidate countries that are not “100% aligned” with rule-of-law standards, as some current Member States have already been “harming the EU” by failing to respect them.
Although not explicitly mentioned, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico—who did not attend the panel in Davos where he was expected—and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán are the targets of this criticism, particularly from Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha. When asked about the challenge of convincing certain Member States to support Kyiv’s EU membership, he warned that “it is important to prevent the misuse of the veto right, publicly blackmailing future EU members is inappropriate.”
On the contrary, “together with Moldova and the Western Balkans, we should now be treated as members of the European Union,” Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs emphasised. For example, “it would be great if the ambitious goal of EU enlargement is reflected in the next long-term EU budget,” the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). Meanwhile, during Poland and Denmark’s EU Council presidencies in 2025, Ukraine aims to open “at least two clusters” of negotiating chapters, which would mark “a year of concrete steps” toward EU enlargement, he added.
Accession negotiations and economic interests at the Davos Forum
The negotiation process for candidates like Montenegro and Ukraine is clearly more demanding than it was for the countries that joined during the 2004 ‘Big Bang’ enlargement. At the same time, Commissioner Kos emphasised that the EU executive is moving “two or three times faster” than the usual process. On the contrary, “if we had taken the same way as North Macedonia, for example, Ukraine would only become a Member State in 2045.”
When asked about criticism in Europe regarding the alleged “fast track” granted to Ukraine, Prime Minister of Montenegro Milojko Spajić clarified that “the EU accession process is not a competition.” If Kyiv manages to join even before Podgorica, “that is fine, as long as we maintain a meritocratic process,” Spajić commented. He emphasised the importance of “solidarity” among candidates and the principle that “if you are confident in yourself, you don’t worry about others.” With this awareness, Montenegro aims to “fully close all negotiating chapters within the next two years and become the 28th Member State by 2028.”
It is also important to consider the potential economic interests and investments driven by the EU enlargement process. “Strengthening rule-of-law standards would also create better conditions for investors,” Commissioner Kos assured. This is particularly relevant for Ukraine, as post-war reconstruction offers “a huge opportunity for EU companies,” Minister Sybiha noted, citing “€600 billion in damages at this stage.”
