Brussels – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is playing a personal game of high-stakes poker, escalating internal repression while betting on a muted—or even non-existent—response from abroad, particularly from the European Union. He wants people to believe Turkish military power can pave the way to EU accession, but “this is false—it is not happening,” MEP Nacho Sánchez Amor firmly clarified in an interview with The New Union Post.
As the Turkish President continues his crackdown on critical voices—such as Ekrem İmamoğlu, the Mayor of Istanbul and presidential candidate, who has been in jail since 23 March—the message promoted by Erdoğan’s propagandists is “misleading public opinion for domestic political purposes,” warns the European Parliament’s rapporteur on Türkiye. On the contrary, “after what happened with İmamoğlu, the accession process is more frozen than ever.”
Erdoğan’s authoritarian path
On 9 April, the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee adopted its report on Türkiye, emphasising that “despite the democratic and pro-European aspirations of a large part of Turkish society,” the country’s EU accession process “cannot be resumed.” The Turkish government “has failed” to take the necessary steps to address “existing fundamental democratic shortcomings,” including the “politically motivated move” aimed at preventing a legitimate challenger from contesting the upcoming elections. All of this, MEPs stated, “further pushes the country towards a fully authoritarian model.”
“Sometimes, we are labelled ‘colonialists’ who interfere in and undermine the sovereignty of other countries,” Sánchez Amor admits, recalling that, as Türkiye is a candidate country, “we are fully authorised to express opinions on the state of human rights, the rule of law, and other related issues.” Pro-democracy movements, citizens, and businesspeople “believe Türkiye’s rightful place is in Europe,” and for this reason, “we must be patient and wait for the moment” when the candidate country “abandons its authoritarian path and returns to the accession track.”
At the same time, it is true that the EU institutions do not have a moral obligation to transform the country into a full democracy. “This is something the country itself must decide—what kind of society it wants to be,” MEP Sánchez Amor continues. “I don’t want to close the door, but we must be clear: there are no shortcuts if the authorities fail to deliver on reforms.” A “lesson” can be learnt from Montenegro, which is likely to become an EU member long before Türkiye. “This is not about drones, it is about the political will to become a mature democracy.”
Given that Istanbul is no longer seriously engaged in EU accession talks, the prospect of moving towards a partnership—rather than full membership—cannot be ruled out. This could apply to areas such as security and defence, migration, trade, and the economy. As MEP Sánchez Amor notes, the European Union is already “engaging with autocrats around the world—Egypt, Tunisia, Azerbaijan—in transactional ways, despite the lack of trust.” If EU accession is taken off the table, any partnership should remain clearly distinct from the enlargement process, as “membership is about democracy.” And the more Türkiye is treated as a partner, “the less it is seen as a potential member.”
Considering that “a world of democracies is a more secure world,” the Spanish MEP calls on the Turkish President to “change the course of the country by beginning to comply with the standards of the rule of law.” Erdoğan holds political power “and controls over 90% of the media, it would be easier for him than for anyone else.” As Sánchez Amor notes with a touch of irony, “it would be humorous to watch how journalists and commentators could change their narratives overnight, following his instructions.”
The state of EU-Türkiye relations
Türkiye applied for membership in 1987, was granted candidate status in 1999, and has been negotiating EU accession since 2005. However, Türkiye’s application has been stalled since the failed coup in 2016, and accession negotiations have been on hold since 2018, in line with the European Council conclusions. As underlined in the 2024 Enlargement Package, the EU’s “serious concerns about the continued deterioration of democratic standards, the rule of law, the independence of the judiciary and respect for fundamental rights were not addressed.”
The EU-Türkiye High-Level Dialogue has been suspended since 2019, with Ankara’s foreign policy continuing to conflict with Brussels’ priorities, including military actions in Syria and Iraq, as well as the deployment of troops in Libya. Additionally, Ankara’s approach to delimiting maritime zones in the Mediterranean has challenged Greek borders—and, by extension, the EU’s external borders—south of the island of Crete. Tensions with EU Member States are further exacerbated by the long-standing diplomatic dispute over Cyprus. Türkiye is the only country to recognise the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, while efforts to reach a compromise have been stalled since 2017.
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