Brussels – And now, the EU institutions are forced to consider the menace to EU enlargement policy coming from within the Union. Just a few months before the beginning of a super-electoral year all over Europe, the triumph of Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in the Saxony-Anhalt regional elections on 6 September exposes the extent to which the sovereignist far-right threat looms over the project of a strengthened European Union with new members.
“The political rise of the AfD raises fears over the future of enlargement, as well as of the EU more broadly,” warns Luisa Chiodi, director of Osservatorio Balcani Caucaso Transeuropa (OBCT), speaking with The New Union Post. Drawing from a recently published FEPS policy study she led on how political parties across the EU view enlargement, Chiodi recalls that the German far-right party “explicitly opposes” enlargement policy at all levels, as it “rejects the widening of the EU as well as its deepening,” which she describes as “a truly disturbing scenario.”
Although the AfD won a regional election and it remains unclear whether it will be able to govern the German state, it is clear that the political phenomenon has broader effects at both the national and European levels. Far-right parties – if not already in power – are expanding their electoral support while looking ahead to 2027, which represents a decisive moment for the future of the Union. Key elections will be held in Italy, Spain, Poland, Greece and, especially, France, where the presidential elections may bring the Eurosceptic Rassemblement National (RN) to power, potentially shifting the balance of power within the European Council.
This is why it is crucial to understand the political positions of right-wing sovereignist parties such as the AfD, including their implications for EU enlargement policy and relations with candidate countries, which are among the main priorities of the pro-European centrist parties currently leading the Union.
The AfD and the wider far right
According to the policy study published by the Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS), the AfD rejects enlargement policy, particularly when it comes to Ukraine’s accession. Due to its positive relations with Moscow, “it has no restraint in supporting Putin and, in its explicit pro-Russian leaning, it opposes the EU sanctions against Moscow,” Chiodi stresses.
In addition to traditional right-wing anti-immigration narratives, the AfD expresses its opposition to enlarging the Union to include Ukraine by exploiting the argument that it would entail a financial burden. As the director of OBCT explains, “the explanation cannot be the fear of competition for cohesion resources like others can do, considering that Germany is a net contributor to the EU budget.” Moreover, the AfD claims that EU accession will further drain the labour force from candidate countries without bringing them any benefits.
The German sovereignist far-right party supports ethnonationalist autocrats in the Western Balkans. In contrast to Germany’s traditional position on the Belgrade–Pristina political conflict, the AfD openly sides with Vučić’s Serbia and takes a revisionist stance towards Kosovo’s independence. At the same time, it supports the idea of creating a third entity for ethnic Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina, “with a clear stance against the Muslim population.” Nor should it be forgotten that the AfD opposes moving beyond unanimity in European foreign policy.
Beyond the AfD, the significant gains made by right-wing and far-right parties in recent years seem to call into question the future of enlargement at the broader European level. However, markedly divergent views on EU enlargement have emerged among the three right-wing European political groups – the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), the Patriots for Europe (PfE), and the Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), to which the AfD belongs.
A Union of sovereign nations
Just like the AfD, many sovereignist parties oppose enlargement due to their explicit anti-immigration and pro-Russian leaning – including France’s Rassemblement National (RN), Austria’s Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ), and the Netherlands’ Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV), all members of the PfE group.
“As EU accession has become less technical and more political, who comes to power at the national level has considerable implications for the outcome of the process,” the policy study reads. For example, if France were to be governed by the far-right Rassemblement National, “enlargement might stall for all candidate countries, except for Serbia, which RN has identified as a politically aligned country.”
On the contrary, other far-right parties are in favour of enlargement, including Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia (FdI – ECR), Poland’s Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS – ECR), and Spain’s Vox (PfE). This should come as no surprise, as their main objective is to reinforce the EU as a union of sovereign nations, “while simultaneously weakening the community method in favour of intergovernmental decision-making.” These parties fundamentally reject the idea of deepening the EU’s political integration to accommodate the accession of new member states, through a two-fold strategy.
Internally, all far-right parties oppose a shift in decision-making procedures towards Qualified Majority Voting (QMV) in a Union of 27+ members, fearing an erosion of national competences and identities. In this context, Hungary’s Fidesz (PfE)’s unrestrained use of the veto power has become a reference point in the far-right political arena during Viktor Orbán’s rule. It represents a high-value political instrument, to be deployed whenever EU decisions are perceived as undermining national interests – or those of the governing party – such as Ukraine’s EU accession in Budapest’s case.
Externally, they pursue selective support for specific countries that they perceive as aligning with their vision of a Union of sovereign nations. For instance, Fidesz ostracises Ukraine but backs the accession of Vučić’s Serbia. The same attitude is shown by Austria’s FPÖ, which has backtracked on the country’s traditional support for regional cooperation in the Western Balkans in favour of openly supporting the Serbian cause. In Germany, the AfD has taken a similar revisionist stance. In France, despite its hostility towards EU enlargement, Rassemblement National has established inter-party relations with Vučić and with Bosnian Serb secessionists in Republika Srpska.
