Brussels – There is one EU candidate country that has been quietly making significant strides—largely unnoticed by headlines and without bold declarations about a future accession date. And yet, for the past year and a half, Moldova has been advancing towards EU membership at a pace unmatched by any other candidate. Now, the time has come to take stock of this progress.
“If this pace continues, it is not unrealistic to assume that, technically, we could be looking at completing the work by the end of 2027—perhaps even a little earlier,” said the Director-General of DG ENEST, Gert Jan Koopman, during a policy dialogue with Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean, held at Bruegel’s headquarters in Brussels on 3 June.
Both Moldova’s recent past and its current push are raising strong hopes within the European Commission. As Koopman observed, “if I see what Moldova has achieved on its EU path in the past year and a half, it is truly amazing.” And although there is still a long road ahead, with “no shortcuts,” maintaining this pace could see the country align with the EU acquis “in just a few years’ time.”
“Speed is a quality”
“We have learnt the lesson from the Western Balkans,” Koopman acknowledged. The delays and “slow-paced process” that began more than 20 years ago in Prespa and still continue today “can no longer be tolerated.” That is why the European Commission has adopted a new guiding principle: “Speed is a quality“—while firmly maintaining that the accession process “is based on the merit” of each individual candidate country.
It is precisely Moldova’s merits that make the EU “incredibly determined” to see Chișinău succeed. “There are not many governments as modernising and pro-EU” as the one led by Prime Minister Recean, the Director-General of DG ENEST noted. Moldova is undergoing “fundamental transformations,” echoed Prime Minister Recean himself, emphasising that “we mobilised the administration and society to move quickly” towards the “ambitious transition” of becoming an EU Member State.
As for the timeline, “2025 is the year in which we aim to open all the negotiating clusters,” Koopman said. For this to happen, two steps are required. First, all the technical work must be finalised “by September,” following a roadmap agreed with the government in Chișinău, which will demand “a few more months of incredibly hard work.” Compared to the Western Balkans, this pace is “two to three times faster, even than Albania,” he noted. Second, the Council must formally open the negotiating clusters, “which requires unanimity” among all member states.
Here is where the things can go wrong. Moldova’s EU accession path is currently linked to Ukraine’s, whose process can be blocked at any stage by Hungary’s veto power. Koopman recalled that, “at this juncture,” there seems to be a willingness within the Council to move both countries forward at the same pace, and “no one” wishing to see Ukraine left behind “despite its good performance.” Nonetheless, he stressed that “whatever happens, we cannot afford delays.” As such, the possibility of decoupling the Kyiv–Chișinău dossier cannot be ruled out, since “the concept of ‘coupling’ is a political construct decided by the member states in the Council.”
In any case, Koopman expects this phase of Moldova’s accession process to be completed “by the end of the year.” Once all technical work is finalised and the negotiating chapters are opened, the next step will be “filling the gaps”—and, he emphasised, “we are not talking about five or ten years.” In fact, the process could move “perhaps twice as fast” as for any other candidate country. On this basis, the Commission considers the end of 2027 as a “feasible” target for concluding negotiations, before asking the member states “if they are ready to grant Moldova membership.”
In response, Moldovan Prime Minister emphasised that events such as the EU–Moldova Association Council—with the ninth meeting scheduled for 4 June in Brussels—are “very important” for the future prospects for “peace, security and welfare” as an EU member state. But he also noted that it is “crucial” for the investments under the €1.8 billion Growth Plan to “move swiftly, to show people the benefits” of EU membership. For example, interconnecting Moldova with the European highways and railways, that is “also in the interest of our Ukrainian neighbors.”
The road to the 2025 elections
The prospects for Moldova’s EU accession—including ambitions for progress this year—rest on a critical factor: the outcome of the parliamentary elections on 28 September. “If we no longer have this pro-EU government pushing through reforms, then the country will be in trouble—and so will the accession process,” Koopman warned. Russia is expected to make a “massive effort” to influence the vote and destabilise the country. While declining to provide details, Koopman confirmed that the European Commission and the EEAS are putting “everything in place to prevent” such a scenario.
Prime Minister Recean echoed concerns over potential attempts to destabilise Moldova— particularly in the separatist region of Transnistria—involving “vote buying, disinformation, and the open financing of anti-EU and anti-Moldovan parties.” He warned that, as the Kremlin “scales up its propaganda machine,” it is already “preparing for the upcoming elections,” just as it did ahead of Moldova’s 2024 referendum on EU membership.
Citing current public opinion figures—”60–65% pro-EU, 20–25% pro-Russian leftists, and the rest of the population that fears Russia because they see what happened in Ukraine,”—Prime Minister Recean claimed the Russian propaganda effort “worked massively” to undermine the EU referendum, because “they wanted to show that EU membership is not the will of the Moldovan people.” The referendum result was razor-thin, with 50.35% voting in favour, but Recean insisted that this was due to “massive Russian spending on vote buying.”
The state of EU-Moldova relations
One week after the start of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, on 3 March 2022, Moldova submitted its request for EU membership. On 23 June 2022, the European Council endorsed the European Commission’s recommendation to grant Chișinău candidate status. At the European Council meeting on 14 December 2023, EU leaders gave the green light to open accession negotiations. Following the Council’s approval of the negotiating frameworks, the first intergovernmental conferences were held on 25 June 2024 in Luxembourg.
With the aim of opening the first EU accession negotiation cluster in the first half of 2025, the screening process has been ongoing since last autumn. As recognised by the Council, Chișinău continues to make progress on justice reform, the fight against corruption, and the implementation of the action plan on de-oligarchisation. At the same time, administrative and institutional capacities need to be strengthened at all levels, while advancing transformative economic reforms, enhancing sectoral cooperation, and deepening integration into the EU internal market remain major economic challenges.
As anticipated by Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos, both Moldova and Ukraine “are ready” for Cluster 1 – Fundamentals to be opened. The first group of five negotiating chapters focuses on economic criteria, the functioning of democratic institutions, and public administration reform. Moreover, Commissioner Kos has made it public that two additional screenings have been sent to the Council for both Chișinău and Kiev—on Cluster 2 – ‘Internal Market’ and Cluster 6 – ‘External Relations’. The unanimous approval of all 27 EU member states in the Council is now the only step required.
