Brussels – While EU leaders are holding tough discussions behind closed doors at the European Council – struggling to find a solution to maintain financial support for Kyiv for the next two years – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has outlined his expectations for this crucial summit, including the security guarantees for ongoing peace negotiations.
“For us, EU membership is one of the security guarantees,” Zelensky said after his meeting with the 27 leader in Brussels on 18 December, emphasising that joining the Union “is part of this [negotiating, ed.] package which Ukraine is negotiating and counting on.” Since August, this option has been discussed at technical and political levels between Ukraine, the US and EU counterparts, signalling the potential role of EU accession in the current negotiations – for now, still without Russia.
Under Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), the “mutual defence clause” provides that if a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other EU members have “an obligation to aid and assist it by all the means in their power.” This clause is binding, but it does not affect the neutrality of certain Member States and is consistent with the commitments of NATO members. However, the significance of this move would be more of a “political anchor” for the other security guarantees, as the EU institutions have already specified.
According to the Ukrainian president, the date of EU accession is “of utmost importance” for Kyiv, but he did not commit to a specific year – following speculation about 1 January 2027 – because “it is to be decided by the EU leaders.” At the same time, he pointed out that the accession process “can be expedited” depending on the implementation of EU-related reforms and decisions taken in Brussels, “if it is not politically blocked.” This was a thinly veiled criticism of Orbán’s Hungary – “I understand who is doing that, it is an open secret” — with Budapest responsible for Ukraine’s accession talks being stalled “for political reasons, not because the reforms are not being implemented.”
Kyiv’s financial needs
“I cannot speak on behalf of the EU leaders about which format the aid might take,” Zelensky said, answering questions about the solution the European Council is expected to adopt to bridge the EU candidate country’s funding gap over the next two years, estimated at around €135.7 billion. While the talks remain stuck between a ‘reparations loan’ using immobilised Russian Central Bank assets – with full and uncapped solidarity and risk sharing, as requested by Belgium – and EU borrowing backed by guarantees provided only by participating member states, the Ukrainian president made his position clear: “We cannot afford to leave Ukraine without an answer at this time.”
On the contrary, “if the issue is not resolved today or in the coming days,” Kyiv will face a deficit of around €40-50 billion in 2026, “and it could become even larger, because we do not know for certain how events will unfold next year,” Zelensky warned. The “high risks” stem from the fact that the shortfall affects Ukraine’s overall capacity to continue fighting or to begin reconstruction if the war ends. While acknowledging the concerns raised by Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, the Ukrainian president stressed that “we face greater risks.”
The state of EU relations with Ukraine
Just four days after the start of Russia’s war of aggression, on 28 February 2022, Ukraine submitted its application for EU membership. On 23 June 2022, the European Council endorsed the European Commission’s recommendation to grant Kyiv candidate status.
At the European Council meeting on 14 December 2023, EU leaders gave the green light to open accession negotiations. Following the Council’s approval of the negotiating frameworks, the first intergovernmental conference was held on 25 June 2024 in Luxembourg. As recognised in the 2025 Enlargement Package, the screening process has been successfully concluded and Ukraine is now ready to open all clusters.
With Hungary continuing to veto the start of Ukraine’s EU negotiations and Kyiv’s goal to complete them by the end of 2028, on 11 November the Danish presidency secured enough informal support among the member states in the Council to continue engaging with the candidate country at working level. The discussions – focused on monitoring progress in the implementation of the EU-related reforms – are taking place solely at a technical level, with no political decisions and no clusters of chapters formally opened or closed.
Once Cluster 1 – ‘Fundamentals’ – the first group of five negotiating chapters (out of 33), focusing on economic criteria, the functioning of democratic institutions, and public administration reform, is opened, the other groups of negotiating chapters can follow. The unanimous approval of all 27 EU member states in the Council is now the only step remaining.
