The 2026 State of the Union opened the door to Canada’s EU associate membership

Strasbourg – The promise comes from the highest level possible. “I would like to work with you on opening the door to Canada to be the first associate member of the European Union,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told Prime Minister Mark Carney during her State of the Union address on 16 September.

Speaking in front of the plenary session of the European Parliament, von der Leyen directly addressed one of the most intriguing ideas – which has been circulating for days in Ottawa and Brussels – about a new form of EU enlargement for a country that is not European and, therefore, cannot become a full EU member. “We want to bring the relationship with Canada to the highest level possible.”

The European Commission President explained that, in a world full of threatening challenges, “we must urgently re-imagine our partnerships and build global coalitions for our resilience and democracies.” She referred to the need for Europe – “with its size and power” – to take the lead in strengthening ambitious alliances with strong democracies such as Canada. “Power does not belong to the strongest, the richest, or the loudest,” is a not-so-cryptic reference to the lack of confidence in Donald Trump’s US administration.

The work could stem from the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), the EU–Canada free-trade treaty provisionally applied since 2017, but it will go further. According to von der Leyen, “we will move from CETA to an Alliance for the Future,” with the aim of creating “a common prosperity and economic security space,” including cooperation on energy, critical minerals, batteries, AI, quantum, and joint projects in the Arctic. “This is a partnership not against anyone else. But for our common strength.”

It must be noted that there is no “associate membership” enshrined in the Treaties, as only full EU membership is foreseen under Article 49 of the Treaty on the European Union. This means that, at present, there is no legal basis for such an option. As The New Union Post understands from several EU sources, no one seems to know the European Commission President’s intentions. The work would therefore have to start “from scratch,” with “concrete proposals” from the Commission needed to establish “where exactly they are based.”

The expression “associate membership” was first used by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in May 2026 as a possible way forward for Ukraine, acknowledging that the EU will not be able to complete Kyiv’s accession process any time soon. This would be a political solution, requiring no Treaty changes, but offering several benefits – participation in European Council and Council of the EU meetings without voting rights, as well as representation in the European Commission (without a portfolio or voting rights) and the European Parliament (without voting rights).

Deepening the EU-Canada relations

Since the beginning of the second Trump administration, both Canada and the EU have been affected by the US president’s constant threats and unpredictability. Despite being their oldest and closest ally, the United States under Donald Trump can no longer be fully trusted, opening the door to a closer and stronger relationship between Brussels and Ottawa.

EU accession remains highly unlikely, as Canada is not a European state and there is currently no political will to pursue a broader interpretation of Article 49 of the Treaty on the European Union that would include the North American country. However, Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos suggested already in April 2026 “special partnership agreements” with a country that “does not want or cannot” become a member of the EU, but is “valuable to us.”

A survey published on 14 September 2026 found that 49% of Canadians believe their country should join the European Union, compared with 30% who believe it should not. Support rises to 80% when it comes to deepening strategic cooperation with the EU on foreign policy, defence and economic priorities.

As Emmanuel Brunet-Jailly, Professor of Public Policy and Jean Monnet Chair at the University of Victoria, told The New Union Post, the gradual shift towards closer alignment between Brussels and Ottawa has already begun, with the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement signed in 2016. “There are many countries that are closely aligned with the EU without being members,” he noted, urging policymakers to focus their efforts “on the many policy areas where cooperation on budgets and regulations is possible.”

Education, security and trade are among the areas where EU-Canada relations hold significant potential for growth. Yet it is political and policy cooperation that could move things faster and take them deeper. Canada has strengthened its institutional ties with the EU through regular meetings between its parliamentarians and senators, Members of the European Parliament and EU officials, as well as through its participation in the European Political Community summit in 2026. “Trump’s joke – which is no longer a joke – about Canada becoming the 51st US state has upset many Canadians,” Professor Brunet-Jailly remarked.