Brussels – The 2026 general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina have resulted in a victory for political continuity, especially at the state level. The nationalist forces that were in power before the vote will retain control of the respective institutions, along with all the issues that have characterised the last four years of politics at both state and entity level, including the lack of reforms needed to advance the country’s path towards EU accession and unlock all funding under the Growth Plan.
According to the Central Election Commission, around 1.4 million voters out of a total of 3.5 million headed to the polls on 4 October – a turnout of 42%, representing a fall of about 8 percentage points compared with the 2022 general elections and the lowest level ever recorded.
Two out of three incumbent members of the collective Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina were reconfirmed in the 4 October elections – Bosniak Denis Bećirović and Serb Željka Cvijanović – while the Croat seat remained under the control of the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH), with Darijana Filipović taking the place of Željko Komšić, who was constitutionally ineligible to seek a third consecutive term.
This means that, both in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and in Republika Srpska, political fragmentation and nationalist polarisation, alongside socio-economic difficulties and constitutional disputes, are set to remain largely unchanged.
In Republika Srpska, the ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) will maintain its strong resistance to state-level judicial authority and the Office of the High Representative (OHR), which led to its leader, Milorad Dodik, being barred from holding public office in the country. Meanwhile, public-sector corruption, institutional stagnation and economic mismanagement remain long-standing unresolved issues, with EU economic assistance representing the only real added-value investment in the entity, despite all the political resistance from nationalists in Banja Luka.
In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the victory of the candidate of the governing Bosniak ‘Trojka’ coalition – composed of the social-democratic Social Democratic Party (SDP BiH), the centre-right People and Justice (NiP) and the socio-liberal Our Party (Naša Stranka) – will most likely result in the continuation of the political clash with the opposing nationalist and conservative Party of Democratic Action (SDA), which remains the most voted party in the Federation, over alleged concessions to Serb autonomists and Croat nationalists. Meanwhile, Croat nationalists are expected to strengthen their demands for the establishment of mechanisms for “legitimate ethnic representation” through electoral law reform.
All this comes at a time of particular confusion in the post-war institutional framework of Bosnia and Herzegovina. High Representative Christian Schmidt’s resignation in May has not yet been followed by the nomination of his successor, raising questions about both the role of the European Union in the process and the significance of the institutional order established by the Dayton Agreement, which remains in place more than 30 years after the end of the war.
The big loser of the institutional standstill may be precisely Bosnia and Herzegovina’s EU accession path. Following the European Council’s recognition of candidate status in December 2022 and its recommendation to open EU accession negotiations, the formal adoption of the negotiating framework remains contingent upon the fulfilment of essential benchmarks, in particular two key reforms – a new law on the State Court and one on the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council – as well as the appointment of an operational Chief Negotiator to advance the screening process, which has yet to take place.
Moreover, EU economic support and investment are at stake. Under the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, €108 million in funding has already been lost because of delays in the adoption of the Reform Agenda. Although the issue was resolved in November 2024, the first tranche of funds is at risk if a crucial deadline in December is missed. Without the implementation of the required reforms, Sarajevo may lose up to €373.9 million, according to EU sources who spoke to The New Union Post.
The state of EU–Bosnia and Herzegovina relations
Bosnia and Herzegovina submitted its official request for EU membership on 15 February 2016. More than six years later, on 15 December 2022, it was granted candidate status. The EU institutions moved forward with the European Council’s decision to open accession negotiations on 21 March 2024.
Despite Sarajevo’s stated commitment, reform momentum has since stalled. Further efforts are needed to address the 14 key priorities outlined in the European Commission’s 2019 Opinion, as well as the steps detailed in the 2022 Recommendation. Two key reforms – a new law on the State Court and one on the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council – as well as the appointment of an operational chief negotiator to advance the screening process are still pending. The Council has affirmed its readiness to adopt the negotiating framework only once these conditions have been met.
